Table of Contents
What changed
Reported revenue rose 151.3% to NZ$2,995.2m and PBT rose 55.4% to NZ$938.6m, reflecting the consolidation of One NZ (now 50.6% of segment revenue at a thin ~3% implied margin) alongside continued growth at CDC-linked associates. NPAT fell 5.2% to NZ$845.1m because the FY23 discontinued-operation gain of NZ$330.1m reversed to a NZ$0.4m loss; profit from continuing operations was in fact up 50.6% to NZ$845.5m. Proportionate EBITDAF, the company's preferred measure, was NZ$864.1m, 63% higher than FY23 and above the upgraded NZ$820–850m guidance range. Operating cash flow jumped to NZ$457.8m from NZ$8.8m, while capex climbed to NZ$436.5m from NZ$137.4m. Cash fell to NZ$236.2m from NZ$774.5m and gross borrowings rose to NZ$5,708.4m from NZ$799.9m, lifting estimated net debt to ~NZ$5.5b from ~NZ$25m. The final dividend was lifted to 13.0cps from 12.5cps.
What matters
- Leverage reset. Net debt has gone from immaterial to roughly 6.3x EBITDA on the calculation pass. That is a structural change in the balance sheet to fund One NZ and CDC's 200MW FY24 build and 400MW+ pipeline expansion, and it re-anchors the risk profile of the vehicle.
- Earnings composition has shifted. Associates still contributed NZ$247.2m (down from NZ$653.4m as CDC is no longer equity-accounted via the same structure), Manawa Energy's result fell to NZ$123.8m from NZ$444.3m, and One NZ's scale now dominates consolidated revenue without dominating earnings. PBT growth of 55.4% is the cleaner read than the -5.2% NPAT print, which is almost entirely a discontinued-operation comparable effect.
- Return on equity is softer. ROE fell to 11.3% from 15.4% as the equity base expanded to NZ$7.47b and the asset-heavy growth investments consumed cash before they earn at scale.
Expectations
No forward earnings target is disclosed in the extracted release, though management states the FY24 result exceeded the upgraded NZ$820–850m proportionate EBITDAF guidance band. HY24 contributed NZ$1,286.6m of revenue (43%) and NZ$400.0m of EBITDAF (46%), implying a second-half-weighted shape, consistent with CDC capacity activations and a full second-half consolidation of One NZ. The release signals continued demand-led CDC expansion but does not re-quantify a forward EBITDAF range in the extracted material, so the briefing cannot test FY25 run-rates against a numerical target.
Quality of result
The operating improvement looks genuine: PBT up 55.4%, continuing-operations profit up 50.6%, and proportionate EBITDAF up 63%. Cash conversion materially improved, with operating cash flow rising to 53% of the disclosed HY-reference EBITDA from 1.7% prior. However, pre-lease free cash flow of just NZ$21.3m means the 13.0cps final dividend is not covered by pre-lease FCF in the year, with the payout effectively funded from debt capacity and prior cash reserves. The NPAT step-down is explained by the named discontinued-operation comparable, not operating deterioration. The swing in Manawa's result (NZ$123.8m vs NZ$444.3m) and in associate contribution (NZ$247.2m vs NZ$653.4m) indicates the prior period carried sizeable fair-value or gain elements that are not repeated, which is worth flagging when judging run-rate earnings quality.
Unresolved
- How much of the NZ$4.9b increase in gross borrowings is term-matched to CDC and One NZ cash flows, and what is the weighted average cost and maturity profile?
- What is the reconciled statutory EBITDA, and therefore a verifiable net debt/EBITDA, given the reliance on proportionate (non-GAAP) EBITDAF?
- What drove Manawa Energy and associate earnings down sharply year-on-year, and how much of FY23's base was one-off?
- Is the 13.0cps final dividend sustainable from operating cash flow once CDC capex peaks, given the pre-lease FCF cover of only ~20%?
This briefing cannot assess valuation, the durability of CDC's 400MW+ pipeline conversion into revenue, or the cost-of-debt profile on the newly consolidated borrowings.
Key metrics
| Metric | FY24 | FY23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2995.2m | $1191.7m | +151.3% ↑ |
| Net profit after tax | $845.1m | $891.7m | -5.2% ↓ |
| Net cash inflow from operating activities | $457.8m | $8.8m | +5102.3% ↑ |
| Final dividend per share | 13.0c | 12.5c | +4.0% ↑ |
| Operating profit | $363m | $696.1m | -47.9% ↓ |
| Profit before tax | $938.6m | $604.1m | +55.4% ↑ |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $236.2m | $774.5m | -69.5% ↓ |
| Total assets | $16109.9m | $10188.8m | +58.1% ↑ |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/ift-fy24
Segment breakdown
| Segment | Current revenue | Prior revenue | Current result | Mix shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gurīn Energy | $0.1m | $0.7m | −$23.8m | +0.0pp |
| Manawa Energy | $472.7m | $482.2m | $123.8m | -11.2pp |
| Mint Renewables | $0.1m | $0m | −$9.5m | +0.0pp |
| Wellington International Airport | $159.2m | $139.8m | $53.9m | -2.6pp |
| Qscan Group | $317.8m | — | $39.1m | n/a |
| RHCNZ Medical Imaging | $340.6m | — | $89.1m | n/a |
| One NZ | $1681.6m | — | $51.2m | n/a |
| Associate Companies | — | — | $247.2m | n/a |
| All other segments and corporate New Zealand | $138.6m | $147.8m | −$116.1m | -3.6pp |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/ift-fy24
Analytical metrics
| Metric | FY24 | FY23 | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBT growth | +55.4% | — | cleaner earnings measure |
| Effective tax rate | 9.9% | 7.0% | — |
| OCF / EBITDA (cash conversion) | 53.0% | 1.7% | stable |
| FCF pre-lease | $21.3m | −$128.6m | +$149.9m |
| FCF / NPAT | 2.5% | -14.4% | complementary conversion metric |
| Capex % revenue | 14.6% | 11.5% | — |
| Capex | $436.5m | $137.4m | +$299.1m |
| Trade debtors | $0.1m | — | — |
| Debtor days | 0.0 | — | computed from disclosed receivables |
| Net debt | $5472.2m | $25.4m | +$5446.8m |
| Net debt / EBITDA | 6.30x | 0.05x | Weakening |
| Gross borrowings | $5708.4m | $799.9m | +$4908.5m |
| Payout ratio vs NPAT | 12.7% | — | — |
| Payout ratio vs FCF pre-lease | 501.9% | — | not covered |
| ROE (annualised) | 11.3% | 15.4% | Weakening |
| HY24 share of FY24 revenue | 43.0% | — | Other half was 57.0% |
| HY24 share of FY24 EBITDA | 46.3% | — | Other half was 53.7% |
| Profit from continuing operations | $845.5m | $561.6m | +$283.9m |
| Discontinued operation after tax | −$0.4m | $330.1m | −$330.5m |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/ift-fy24
This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX/ASX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.