Table of Contents
What changed
Revenue rose 7.0% to NZD 2,188.0m and EBITDAF rose 25.5% to NZD 581.0m. Profit before tax nearly tripled to NZD 510.0m (up 194.8%) and reported NPAT jumped 232.6% to NZD 469.0m. Operating cash flow moved only modestly, up 4.1% to NZD 352.0m, while cash on hand fell to NZD 65.0m from NZD 163.0m. Gross borrowings rose 31.2% to NZD 1,956.0m, lifting estimated net debt to roughly NZD 1,891.0m and net debt/EBITDAF to 3.3x from 2.9x. The total ordinary dividend was lifted to 20.0 cps from 17.0 cps, with the final component at 12.0 cps. Generation/Wholesale dominated profitability at an inferred ~32.6% EBITDAF margin; Retail margins were thin at ~4.9%.
What matters
- H1-weighted bottom line. HY22 alone delivered NZD 427.0m of NPAT, leaving only ~NZD 42.0m generated in H2 against full-year NPAT of NZD 469.0m. EBITDAF split more evenly (HY22 NZD 242.0m, implied H2 NZD 339.0m), so the NPAT skew sits below EBITDAF and points to first-half non-operating items rather than sustained operating acceleration.
- Tax distortion. The effective tax rate dropped to ~8.0% from 18.5%, so the cleaner underlying read is PBT growth of 194.8% rather than NPAT growth of 232.6%. Even PBT growth materially outpaces EBITDAF growth of 25.5%, reinforcing that gains below the EBITDAF line did much of the lift.
- Leverage and working capital moved the wrong way. Trade debtors rose 53.1% to NZD 476.0m, inventories almost quadrupled to NZD 94.0m, and operating working capital expanded by roughly NZD 235.0m. That helps explain OCF/EBITDAF falling to 60.6% from 73.0%. Net debt/EBITDAF stepped to 3.3x despite the earnings uplift.
Expectations
No quantitative FY23 guidance or forward-work target was included in the extracted release, and no stated targets were supplied. Seasonality context is limited to HY22, which shows the FY22 profit shape was heavily first-half weighted at the NPAT line. The release supports an improved headline earnings trajectory and a sustained dividend step-up, but it does not provide the forward sales book or pricing disclosures needed to validate whether the H1 earnings run-rate is repeatable.
Quality of result
Mixed. EBITDAF growth of 25.5% on 7.0% revenue growth reflects genuine operating leverage, and company-defined free cash flow of NZD 284.0m was broadly flat on NZD 282.0m. However, the quality indicators weakened on several fronts: cash conversion deteriorated (OCF/EBITDAF 60.6% vs 73.0%), receivable days extended by about 24 days to ~79.5, and NPAT was amplified by a 10.5 percentage-point fall in the effective tax rate. FCF held up mainly because capex fell sharply to NZD 114.0m from NZD 254.0m (5.2% of revenue vs 12.4%), a timing benefit rather than an efficiency gain. At 96.2% of FCF, the dividend is covered but with little cushion, and the 58.3% payout of NPAT would be materially higher if H1 non-operating gains are stripped out.
Unresolved
- What specifically drove the PBT/EBITDAF divergence and the 91% H1 NPAT concentration — fair value movements on financial instruments, asset revaluations, or one-off items are not identified in the extracted excerpts.
- Why the effective tax rate dropped to ~8.0%, and whether that is repeatable.
- Whether the capex step-down to NZD 114.0m reflects phasing of development capex (with a step-up to follow) or a durable lower run-rate.
- Drivers of the NZD 235.0m working-capital build, particularly the fourfold increase in inventories, and when it reverses.
- The composition and purpose of the NZD 465.0m increase in gross borrowings, given assets rose NZD 1,682.0m.
This briefing cannot assess forward earnings sustainability, hedge book/fair value mechanics behind the PBT lift, or any management guidance not contained in the supplied extraction.
Key metrics
| Metric | FY22 | FY21 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2188m | $2045m | +7.0% ↑ |
| Net profit after tax | $469m | $141m | +232.6% ↑ |
| Net cash inflow from operating activities | $352m | $338m | +4.1% ↑ |
| Final dividend per share | 12.0c | 10.2c | +17.6% ↑ |
| EBITDAF | $581m | $463m | +25.5% ↑ |
| Profit before tax | $510m | $173m | +194.8% ↑ |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $65m | $163m | -60.1% ↓ |
| Total assets | $9660m | $7978m | +21.1% ↑ |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/mcy-fy22
Segment breakdown
| Segment | Current revenue | Prior revenue | Current result | Mix shift |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Generation/Wholesale | $1671m | — | $545m | n/a |
| Retail | $783m | — | $38m | n/a |
| Other Segments | −$2m | — | −$2m | n/a |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/mcy-fy22
Analytical metrics
| Metric | FY22 | FY21 | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBT growth | +194.8% | — | cleaner earnings measure |
| Effective tax rate | 8.0% | 18.5% | — |
| OCF / EBITDAF (cash conversion) | 60.6% | 73.0% | deteriorated |
| FCF pre-lease | $284.0m | $282.0m | +$2.0m |
| FCF / NPAT | 60.6% | 200.0% | complementary conversion metric |
| Capex % revenue | 5.2% | 12.4% | — |
| Capex | $114.0m | $254.0m | −$140.0m |
| Free cash flow | $284.0m | $282.0m | +$2.0m |
| Debtor days | 79.5 | 55.5 | +24.0 days |
| Inventory days | 15.7 | 4.3 | +11.4 days |
| Operating working capital | $570.0m | $335.0m | +$235.0m absorbed |
| Trade debtors | $476.0m | $311.0m | +$165.0m |
| Net debt | $1891.0m | $1328.0m | +$563.0m |
| Net debt / EBITDAF | 3.30x | 2.90x | Weakening |
| Gross borrowings | $1956.0m | $1491.0m | +$465.0m |
| Payout ratio vs NPAT | 58.3% | — | — |
| Payout ratio vs FCF pre-lease | 96.2% | — | covered |
| ROE (annualised) | 9.9% | 3.4% | Strengthening |
| HY22 share of FY22 revenue | 39.9% | — | Other half was 60.1% |
| HY22 share of FY22 EBITDAF | 41.7% | — | Other half was 58.3% |
| HY22 share of FY22 NPAT | 91.1% | — | Other half was 8.9% |
| Profit from continuing operations | $469.0m | $141.0m | +$328.0m |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/mcy-fy22
This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX/ASX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.