Table of Contents
What changed
Revenue rose 35.2% to $2,863.2m and EBITDAF lifted 46.7% to $675.0m. PBT grew 91.0% to $338.0m while NPAT increased 85.3% to $235.3m, with the gap explained by a higher effective tax rate (30.5% versus 28.2%). Operating cash flow rose 46.8% to $580.0m and company-defined free cash flow reached $471.0m (prior $298.0m), helped by capex falling to $506.0m from $585.0m. Gross borrowings increased to $1,913.0m from $1,556.0m, but with cash of $229.0m net debt of $1,684.0m is supported by much stronger EBITDAF, so net debt/EBITDAF eased to 2.5x from 3.1x. The final dividend was lifted to 23.0 cps from 21.0 cps.
What matters
- The FY23 base is distorted by an $84m onerous contract charge (EBITDAF impact $113m). The headline 46.7% EBITDAF growth overstates underlying improvement; adjusting FY23 upward by the $113m EBITDAF drag, underlying growth is closer to the high single digits. Investors should treat FY24 as a return to a cleaner run-rate more than a step-change.
- Leverage has moved in the right direction despite heavier borrowings. Gross debt rose $357m to fund capex (Te Huka 3 geothermal, Glenbrook battery), but EBITDAF growth has outpaced the debt build, leaving net debt/EBITDAF at 2.5x. Equity fell to $2,619m from $2,804m, suggesting distributions plus revaluation/hedge movements exceeded retained profit.
- Capital allocation is now comfortably covered. The FY24 dividend sits at roughly 77% of NPAT (versus 129% in FY23) and 38% of free cash flow, a material improvement in coverage that supports the growth capex pipeline without forcing further gearing.
Expectations
No numerical guidance or forward-work metric was disclosed in the supplied materials. On seasonality, HY24 delivered 52.4% of full-year EBITDAF and 65.2% of NPAT, so the second half was softer on both measures — implied H2 EBITDAF of $321.0m versus HY24's $354.0m, and implied H2 NPAT of $82.3m versus $153.0m in HY24. That shape is worth noting because it means the FY24 exit run-rate is weaker than the first-half pace, not stronger. Te Huka 3 (commissioning, online Q4 2024) and the Glenbrook battery (Q1 2026) are the named growth hooks but carry no quantified earnings contribution in the excerpts.
Quality of result
Cash conversion is broadly stable: OCF/EBITDAF at 85.9% versus 85.9% prior. Free cash flow improvement is genuine and reflects both lower capex and stronger earnings. However, a meaningful portion of the reported OCF uplift is working-capital driven: trade debtors fell $75m (receivable days to 20.8 from 41.0) and inventories fell $8m, releasing roughly $83m of operating working capital. That release is unlikely to repeat at the same magnitude. Earnings quality is further qualified by the FY23 onerous contract base effect noted above — much of the PBT jump is the absence of last year's charge rather than new operating leverage. The H2 softness in EBITDAF and NPAT also argues that the FY24 print is not a clean forward run-rate.
Unresolved
- What is the underlying FY24 EBITDAF once FY23 is normalised for the $113m onerous contract impact, and what does management see as the sustainable run-rate?
- What drove the $185m equity decline despite $235m of profit — dividends alone, or hedge reserve/cash flow hedge movements?
- Why did H2 EBITDAF and NPAT step down materially from HY24, and is that hydrology, pricing, or cost-related?
- What is the expected EBITDAF contribution and timing profile from Te Huka 3 once commissioned, and the total remaining spend on Glenbrook?
- Is the sharp drop in receivable days a structural collections improvement or a wholesale/retail mix effect that could reverse?
This briefing cannot assess wholesale electricity price assumptions, hydrology or generation volumes, or the detailed line-by-line bridge from statutory profit to EBITDAF and operating free cash flow, none of which are in the supplied extraction.
Key metrics
| Metric | FY24 | FY23 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $2863m | $2118m | +35.2% ↑ |
| Net profit after tax | $235.3m | $127m | +85.3% ↑ |
| Net cash inflow from operating activities | $580m | $395m | +46.8% ↑ |
| Final dividend per share | 23.0c | 21.0c | +9.5% ↑ |
| EBITDAF | $675m | $460m | +46.7% ↑ |
| Profit before tax | $338m | $177m | +91.0% ↑ |
| Cash and cash equivalents | $229m | $140m | +63.6% ↑ |
| Total assets | $6208m | $5808m | +6.9% ↑ |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/cen-fy24
Analytical metrics
| Metric | FY24 | FY23 | Context |
|---|---|---|---|
| PBT growth | +91.0% | — | cleaner earnings measure |
| Effective tax rate | 30.5% | 28.2% | — |
| OCF / EBITDAF (cash conversion) | 85.9% | 85.9% | stable |
| FCF pre-lease | $471.0m | $298.0m | +$173.0m |
| FCF / NPAT | 200.1% | 234.6% | complementary conversion metric |
| Capex % revenue | 17.7% | 27.6% | — |
| Capex | −$506.0m | $585.0m | −$1091.0m |
| Free cash flow | $471.0m | $298.0m | +$173.0m |
| Debtor days | 20.8 | 41.0 | -20.2 days |
| Inventory days | 9.8 | 14.6 | -4.8 days |
| Operating working capital | $240.0m | $323.0m | −$83.0m absorbed |
| Trade debtors | $163.0m | $238.0m | −$75.0m |
| Net debt | $1684.0m | $1416.0m | +$268.0m |
| Net debt / EBITDAF | 2.50x | 3.08x | Strengthening |
| Gross borrowings | $1913.0m | $1556.0m | +$357.0m |
| Payout ratio vs NPAT | 76.9% | — | — |
| Payout ratio vs FCF pre-lease | 38.4% | — | covered |
| ROE (annualised) | 9.0% | 4.5% | Strengthening |
| HY24 share of FY24 revenue | 45.6% | — | Other half was 54.4% |
| HY24 share of FY24 EBITDAF | 52.4% | — | Other half was 47.6% |
| HY24 share of FY24 NPAT | 65.2% | — | Other half was 34.8% |
| Profit from continuing operations | $235.3m | $127.0m | +$108.3m |
Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/cen-fy24
This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.