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Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published

EBITDAF margin reached 31.2%, above Contact's historical range

Revenue fell 5.7% while EBITDAF margin rose to 31.2%, though a portfolio-scale change makes the comparison less clean.

Energy & Utilities / Integrated gentailer

CEN revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

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HY26 was $1.6b, versus $1.7b in HY25.

CEN EBITDAF margin

EBITDAF margin across covered periods.

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  • HY25 CEN HY: Outside range low ebitda margin. 23.7%; 3-period range 24.7% to 30.9%. EBITDA margin: 23.7%, below normal range; 3-period mean 27.6%, range 24.7%-30.9%.
  • HY26 CEN HY: Outside range high ebitda margin. 30.9%; 3-period range 23.7% to 27.1%. EBITDA margin: 30.9%, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.2%, range 23.7%-27.1%.
  • FY23 CEN FY: Outside range low ebitda margin. 21.7%; 3-period range 23.6% to 31.2%. EBITDA margin: 21.7%, below normal range; 3-period mean 26.7%, range 23.6%-31.2%.
  • FY26 CEN FY: Outside range high ebitda margin. 31.2%; 3-period range 21.7% to 25.4%. EBITDA margin: 31.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.5%, range 21.7%-25.4%.
EBITDA margin: 31.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.5%, range 21.7%-25.4%.

CEN operating cash flow

Operating cash flow across covered periods.

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HY26 was $308m, versus $203m in HY25.

CEN working-capital movement

Operating working-capital absorption or release by reporting period.

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FY26 was -$111m, versus $55m in FY23.

Market context

Valuation

A close-dated read on what the market price implies next to the latest verified filing inputs. Unavailable metrics stay visible when the absence is useful context.

Prices as at close, 21 August 2026

Price and market cap

The latest close and share count context for the market price.

Market cap

$9.7b

i

End-of-day close multiplied by current shares on issue.

Profitability multiples

How the market price compares with recent earnings and cash-flow inputs.

P/E

22.99x

i

Recent market cap compared with trailing earnings.

EPS

0.39

i

Recent filing-derived earnings per share.

PEG

0.85x

i

P/E compared with recent earnings growth.

EV/EBITDA

11.81x

i

Enterprise value compared with recent EBITDA.

P/FCF

14.9x

i

Market cap compared with recent free cash flow.

P/B

1.85x

i

Market value compared with latest reported equity.

Income and fund shape

Yield and fund-style valuation where the company shape supports it.

Dividend yield

4.4%

i

Trailing dividends compared with the latest close.

Total return

Not available

i

Available once dividend and adjustment data are verified.

Release date
10 August 2026
Published
10 August 2026

Key metrics

Numbers worth scanning first

FY26 vs FY25

Revenue

$3.2b

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Net profit after tax

$420m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Net cash inflow from operating activities

$793m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Full-year dividend per share

40.0c

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Profit before tax

$589m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Cash and cash equivalents

$766m

+49.0% ↑ vs $514m

Total assets

$10.7b

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Analysis ofCEN FY26Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published

What changed

Contact Energy's FY26 EBITDAF margin reached 31.2%, well above Annolyse's historical baseline mean of 23.5% for the company, even as revenue fell 5.7% to $3,242.5m

Profit before tax rose 27.2% to $589m and net profit after tax rose 26.9% to $420m, both stronger than the revenue trend alone would suggest. Operating cash flow rose to $793m from $544m, lifting cash conversion to 78.4% from 70.3%, and net debt/EBITDA improved to 2.26x from 2.50x.

These totals are not strictly like-for-like: the current and prior periods both carry a portfolio-changing transaction event, which affects the scale of revenue, assets, and financing lines and should temper any clean year-on-year read.

What matters

Margin strength versus historical range

Capital raise adds balance-sheet context, with NZ$10m capital raised, but borrowings and gearing are the direct leverage evidence.

The 31.2% EBITDAF margin sits 7.7 percentage points above the three-period mean of 23.5%, the strongest print in the supplied baseline. For a gentailer, this matters because margin at this level is unusually dependent on generation mix and hydrology conditions in the period, so the question for investors is how much of the uplift is structural operating leverage versus a favourable generation year that may not repeat.

PBT is the cleaner growth signal. PBT growth of 27.2% and NPAT growth of 26.9% moved almost in lockstep, with the effective tax rate steady at 28.2% versus 28.5% prior, so there is no material tax distortion between the two profit lines. Within the segment mix, the retail segment's operating loss narrowed to $16m from $85m while the wholesale segment result rose to $1.1b from $895m, indicating the earnings improvement is concentrated in wholesale generation economics rather than an improving retail margin.

Leverage improved but the balance sheet changed scale. Net debt/EBITDA fell to 2.26x from 2.50x, which supports financial flexibility, but total assets and equity also expanded materially over the period. This means the leverage improvement should be read alongside the balance-sheet scale change rather than treated purely as organic debt paydown.

Expectations

No stated financial targets were disclosed for FY26, so the result can only be judged against the supplied historical range and the company's own half-year shape rather than a guided outcome

The first half contributed roughly half of full-year revenue, EBITDAF, and NPAT (around 49.9%, 49.5%, and 48.6% respectively), indicating a fairly even split rather than unusual seasonal skew. Dividend guidance points to 42 cents per share for the following year against a full-year dividend of 40 cents in the current period, up from 39 cents prior, a modest step that does not by itself validate the margin strength as repeatable.

Quality of result

Cash conversion of 78.4% sits within Contact's normal historical range, so the cash backing of reported earnings looks consistent with recent history rather than unusually strong or weak

Free cash flow of $648m against NPAT of $420m implies FCF/NPAT conversion of 154.3%, aided by the phasing of capital spending, which rose to $520m from $449m as growth investment continued. Working-capital movement between periods appears materially different from prior years, but given the same-period scale change noted above, this is better read as a balance-sheet composition effect than a clean signal of receivables or payables deterioration, and should not be treated as a trend without further disclosure.

Unresolved

Open questions

How much of the 31.2% EBITDAF margin reflects durable operating leverage versus favourable generation conditions that may not persist?
Why did the retail segment's loss narrow to $16m from $85m, and is that driven by pricing, cost control, or customer volume?
What is management's target range for net debt/EBITDA now that leverage has moved to 2.26x?
Will the payout ratio versus NPAT of 96.4% be sustained if earnings growth normalises toward the historical PBT growth mean of 32.7%?
Does the dividend guidance of 42 cents per share assume the current margin level continues?

This briefing cannot assess the specific quantitative contribution of the period's capital-structure transaction to reported cash flow or leverage, as that attribution was not reconciled in the disclosed source material.

Ask about CEN FY26

Informational only. No buy, sell, hold, price-target, or personal financial advice.

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How much of the 31.2% EBITDAF margin reflects durable operating leverage versus favourable generation conditions that may not persist?Why does "Margin strength versus historical range" matter?How strong was the cash and earnings quality in FY26?What should I watch next for CEN after FY26?

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Data appendix

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Sources

Current period

Contact FY26 Results Media Release

FY26 / media release

Investor Presentation

FY26 / results presentation

NZX Form - Results Announcement

FY26 / results announcement

Prior comparable period

Contact Energy FY25 Media Release

FY25 / media release

Investor Presentation

FY25 / results presentation

Results Announcement

FY25 / results announcement

Interim context

CEN advances investments; $525m equity raise announced

HY26 / results release

HY26 Financial Statements

HY26 / financial report

HY26 Results Presentation

HY26 / results presentation

Release context

Investor webcast details

FY25 / commentary

Webcast details for 2026 Full Year Results Presentation

FY26 / commentary

Contact HY26 - Investor Webcast details

HY26 / commentary

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