Contact Energy (CEN) / HY25

Revenue up 30.7% and EBITDAF up 14%, but PBT slipped 5.6% and cash...

Headline growth is real, but weaker operating cash flow, rising net debt and a payout ratio near 90% of NPAT sharpen the earnings-quality question.

Release date
17 February 2025
Published
22 April 2026

What changed

Revenue rose 30.7% to NZ$1,707.1m and EBITDAF lifted 14.1% to NZ$404.0m, but the gains did not carry through the P&L. PBT fell 5.6% to NZ$201.0m and NPAT fell 7.2% to NZ$142.4m. The gap between EBITDAF growth and PBT decline implies a meaningful step-up in depreciation, amortisation or net finance costs below the EBITDAF line, consistent with the growth capex profile and higher borrowings.

Operating cash flow dropped 19.1% to NZ$203.0m even as EBITDAF rose, and free cash flow fell to NZ$138.0m from NZ$187.0m despite a NZ$28m reduction in capex to NZ$234.0m. Gross borrowings increased to NZ$2,050.0m from NZ$1,895.0m, cash fell to NZ$216.0m from NZ$274.0m, and implied net debt rose to roughly NZ$1,834m from NZ$1,621m. The interim dividend was lifted to 16.0 cps from 14.0 cps.

What matters

  • Earnings quality divergence. EBITDAF up 14% against PBT down 5.6% is the cleanest operating read here: the below-EBITDAF cost base (D&A, interest) is consuming the operating gain. Effective tax was 29.4% vs 28.2% prior, so tax is not the swing factor — PBT is the right anchor, and it went backwards.
  • Cash conversion deteriorated materially. OCF-to-EBITDAF fell to 50.2% from 70.9%, and FCF-to-NPAT dropped to 96.9% from 121.9%. With no working-capital detail disclosed, the source of the NZ$48m OCF shortfall is not yet visible, but it is the most important quality signal in the release.
  • Leverage and payout. Net debt/EBITDAF is broadly stable at ~4.5x (vs ~4.6x), but absolute net debt rose ~NZ$0.2bn while dividends absorbed ~89% of NPAT, up from ~72%. The 16 cps interim is covered by FCF of NZ$138m at a group level, but the combination of higher debt, a higher payout ratio and falling cash conversion is the balance-sheet tension to watch.

Expectations

No quantitative earnings guidance or forward-work target was disclosed in the supplied excerpts, so this briefing compares only to the FY24 shape. HY24 carried 45.6% of FY24 revenue, 52.4% of FY24 EBITDAF and 65.2% of FY24 NPAT — i.e. the prior year was second-half weighted on revenue but first-half weighted on profit. Against that shape, HY25 revenue annualises to about NZ$3,414m, roughly 19% above FY24's NZ$2,863m, and HY25 EBITDAF of NZ$404m already represents 60% of FY24's NZ$675m. The revenue and EBITDAF trajectory supports a higher FY25 run-rate; the NPAT trajectory does not, given the ~NZ$12m PBT decline despite a much larger revenue base.

Quality of result

A substantial portion of the reported growth looks less durable than the revenue headline suggests. Three signals point this way: EBITDAF growth did not survive the trip to PBT; OCF fell while EBITDAF rose, pushing cash conversion down by more than 20 percentage points; and FCF was supported by lower capex rather than stronger operating generation. EBITDAF and FCF are company-defined metrics and the supplied extraction does not include a full statutory reconciliation. No non-recurring items were disclosed, so the PBT decline is not explained by an identified one-off in the extracted data — it reads as structural cost and finance-charge drag against a higher revenue base.

Unresolved

  • What drove the NZ$48m fall in OCF despite a NZ$50m rise in EBITDAF — working capital, tax paid, or interest paid?
  • What is the split between D&A and net finance costs below EBITDAF, and how much of the PBT decline is attributable to the higher borrowings balance?
  • Current-period segment detail (Wholesale vs Retail revenue and EBITDAF) was not in the supplied extraction; the HY24 split showed Wholesale carrying essentially all segment profit, so a shift in that mix would be material.
  • Is the elevated dividend payout (~89% of NPAT) intended as the new run-rate, or a reflection of timing against a heavier growth-capex programme (Te Huka 3, Glenbrook battery)?

This briefing cannot assess market-price-based valuation, management commentary on outlook, or hedge-book and wholesale-price exposure, as none were provided in the supplied data.

Key metrics

← Swipe to view more
Metric HY25 HY24 Change
Revenue $1707m $1306m +30.7% ↑
Net profit after tax $142m $153m -7.2% ↓
Net cash inflow from operating activities $203m $251m -19.1% ↓
Interim dividend per share 16.0c 14.0c +14.3% ↑
EBITDAF $404m $354m +14.1% ↑
Cash and cash equivalents $216m $274m -21.2% ↓
Total assets $6383m $6059m +5.3% ↑

Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/cen-hy25

Segment breakdown

← Swipe to view more
Segment Current revenue Prior revenue Current result Mix shift
Wholesale $969m n/a
Retail $618m n/a

Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/cen-hy25

Analytical metrics

← Swipe to view more
Metric HY25 HY24 Context
PBT growth -5.6% cleaner earnings measure
Effective tax rate 29.4% 28.2%
OCF / EBITDAF (cash conversion) 50.2% 70.9% deteriorated
FCF pre-lease $138.0m $187.0m −$49.0m
FCF / NPAT 96.9% 121.9% complementary conversion metric
Capex % revenue 13.7% 20.1%
Capex $234.0m −$262.0m +$496.0m
Free cash flow $138.0m $187.0m −$49.0m
Net debt $1834.0m $1621.0m +$213.0m
Net debt / EBITDAF 4.54x 4.58x Strengthening
Gross borrowings $2050.0m $1895.0m +$155.0m
Payout ratio vs NPAT 89.4%
ROE (annualised) 5.4% 5.7% Weakening
HY24 share of FY24 revenue 45.6% Other half was 54.4%
HY24 share of FY24 EBITDAF 52.4% Other half was 47.6%
HY24 share of FY24 NPAT 65.2% Other half was 34.8%
Profit from continuing operations $142.4m $153.5m −$11.1m

Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/cen-hy25


This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Metric context

Trajectory before this result

A compact view of the company's recent revenue and margin path, derived from the same metrics history that powers the company page.

CEN revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

CEN EBITDA margin

Earnings margin across covered periods.

Appendix

Reference material

Company materials considered in this briefing.

Current period

HY25 Financial Statements

HY25 / financial report

NZX HY25 Results Announcement

HY25 / results announcement

NZX HY25 Results Announcement

HY25 / results release

Prior comparable period

FY24 Interim Financial Statements

HY24 / financial report

HY24 Media Release

HY24 / media release

HY24 Results Announcement Form

HY24 / results announcement

Full-year context

Results Announcement Form

FY24 / results announcement

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