Market cap
$6.4b
End-of-day close multiplied by current shares on issue.
Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published
Operating earnings and a $186m working capital release boosted cash flow, but second-half trading slowed against a strong comparable.
Revenue context before the current result.
EBITDA margin across covered periods.
Operating cash flow across covered periods.
Operating working-capital absorption or release by reporting period.
Market context
A close-dated read on what the market price implies next to the latest verified filing inputs. Unavailable metrics stay visible when the absence is useful context.
The latest close and share count context for the market price.
Market cap
$6.4b
End-of-day close multiplied by current shares on issue.
How the market price compares with recent earnings and cash-flow inputs.
P/E
25.6x
Recent market cap compared with trailing earnings.
EPS
2.49
Recent filing-derived earnings per share.
PEG
Not available
Not meaningful without positive comparable earnings growth.
EV/EBITDA
Not available
Not available for this company right now.
P/FCF
16.39x
Market cap compared with recent free cash flow.
P/B
3x
Market value compared with latest reported equity.
Yield and fund-style valuation where the company shape supports it.
Dividend yield
2.7%
Trailing dividends compared with the latest close.
Total return
Not available
Available once dividend and adjustment data are verified.
Key metrics
FY23 vs FY22
Revenue
$5.7b
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
EBITDA
$851m
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Net profit after tax
$426.5m
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Net cash inflow from operating activities
$757.2m
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Full-year dividend per share
172.0c
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Profit before tax
$587.4m
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Cash and cash equivalents
$342m
+69.1% ↑ vs $202.3m
Total assets
$3.4b
Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.
Analysis ofMFT FY23Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published
What changed
The headline growth, however, masks a marked second-half deceleration: H1 contributed 52.9% of full-year revenue, and commentary explicitly states the second half "fell short of expectations" against a very strong comparison period, with USA and Asia most affected by softening international freight conditions.
Operating cash flow jumped 50.3% to $757.2m, because trade debtors fell $186.1m as shipping-line rates eased, compressing receivable days from 56.3 to 39.8. Net capital expenditure stepped up 71% to $323.9m, lifting capex intensity from 3.6% to 5.7% of revenue.
What matters
Capital raise is explicitly linked in the filing to balance-sheet leverage, with NZ$510m capital raised.
OCF/EBITDA moved to 89.0% from 70.9% and FCF/NPAT reached 101.6%, but the swing was driven by the $186.1m debtor reduction as shipping rates normalised. This matters because the release is real cash but is not repeatable at this magnitude in FY24.
The second-half slowdown is the most important forward-looking signal. Air & Ocean is the largest division at 47.3% of revenue with a disclosed gross margin of 10.9%, and is the segment most exposed to the international rate and volume compression management cited. If H2 represents the new run-rate, FY24 starts from a softer base than the FY23 headline suggests.
Capex intensity nearly doubled. Spend of $323.9m skewed to land and buildings ($163.1m) and warehousing fit-out ($70.4m) signals capacity investment rather than maintenance. This absorbs cash now without contributing to current earnings, so the payback timing matters when international volumes are uncertain.
Expectations
The implied H2 run-rate is $2.7b revenue and $209.5m NPAT, materially below H1's $3b and $217.0m. Annualising H2 produces roughly $5.3b of revenue versus the FY23 outcome of $5.7b, indicating FY24 starts from a softer base if the international weakness persists rather than reverses.
The release does not quantify how much of the H2 softness is rate-driven (price) versus volume-driven, which matters because rate normalisation eventually anniversaries while sustained volume weakness would compound into FY24 earnings.
Quality of result
Commentary states there are no abnormals in FY23 or FY22, the effective tax rate was unchanged at 27.4%, and PBT and NPAT grew at the same +20.0% pace, so the operating read is clean and EBITDA margin expansion on +8.8% revenue indicates genuine operating leverage. ROE held at 24.7% versus 24.9%, broadly stable as the equity base grew alongside earnings.
Cash quality is less durable. The lift in OCF/EBITDA to 89.0% from 70.9% leans heavily on the $186.1m trade debtor release, a balance-sheet timing benefit tied to lower shipping-line rates rather than a step-change in underlying conversion. FCF/NPAT at 101.6% reflects the same release against a sharply higher capex denominator. Stripping the receivables release, underlying operating cash generation grew much more modestly than the 50% headline, so reported FY23 cash flow overstates the run-rate available to fund future capex and dividends.
Unresolved
This briefing cannot assess underlying volume trends, segment-level year-on-year revenue moves (prior-year segment splits are not in the supplied data), or how management is sizing future capex against an uncertain international demand backdrop.
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Informational only. No buy, sell, hold, price-target, or personal financial advice.
Informational only. No buy, sell, hold, price-target, or personal financial advice.
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Mainfreight - Full Year 2023 Commentary
FY23 / results releaseMainfreight - Full Year 2023 Presentation
FY23 / results presentationMainfreight Full Year Financial Results to 31 March 2023
FY23 / financial reportMainfreight Annual Report 2022
FY22 / financial reportMainfreight Commentary HY to 30 September 2022
HY23 / results presentationMainfreight Financial Statements to 30 September 2022
HY23 / financial reportMainfreight NZX Results Announcement to 30 September 2022
HY23 / results announcementMainfreight NZX Results Announcement to 30 September 2022
HY23 / results releaseMainfreight Annual Meeting Results 2022
HY23 / commentaryMainfreight Limited - Investor Day / market update
HY23 / commentaryRelated insights
Cross-company views selected from the metrics in this briefing.
Cash conversion quality
This result converted 89.0% of EBITDA to operating cash flow, +18.1pp versus the prior comparable period.
Leverage and balance-sheet risk
Net debt / EBITDA is -0.14x, -0.15x versus the prior comparable period.
Earnings quality and statutory distortions
PBT and NPAT growth diverged by 0.0pp.
Revenue growth context
Revenue growth was 8.8% for this reporting period.
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