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Marlin Global (MLN) / FY25

Portfolio return of $5.9m lagged an unprecedented 50% benchmark

Investment income held above the historical baseline at $1.2m, but portfolio total return fell 86.3% while the benchmark posted a record 50% gain.

Investment Companies / Listed investment company

NTA/NAV per share

Net tangible asset or net asset value per share, shown in per-share cents for chart readability.

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  • HY22 MLN: Unprecedented high nta/nav per share. 1.26x; 4-period range 0.8x to 1.02x. NTA/NAV per share: 1.26x, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 0.93x, range 0.80x-1.02x.
  • FY22 MLN: Outside range low nta/nav per share. 0.89x; 4-period range 0.93x to 30x. NTA/NAV per share: 0.89x, below normal range; 4-period mean 8.31x, range 0.93x-30.00x.
  • HY23 MLN: Outside range low nta/nav per share. 0.8x; 4-period range 0.94x to 1.26x. NTA/NAV per share: 0.80x, below normal range; 4-period mean 1.04x, range 0.94x-1.26x.
  • FY25 MLN: Unprecedented high nta/nav per share. 30x; 4-period range 0.89x to 1.28x. NTA/NAV per share: 30.00x, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 1.03x, range 0.89x-1.28x.
NTA/NAV per share: 30.00x, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 1.03x, range 0.89x-1.28x.

Investment income

Recurring investment-income or revenue-return proxy, excluding fair-value movement where disclosed.

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  • FY21 MLN: Outside range low investment income. $0.6m; 4-period range $0.7m to $1.2m. Investment income: NZ$0.6m, below normal range; 4-period mean NZ$1.0m, range NZ$0.7m-NZ$1.2m.
  • HY22 MLN: Outside range low investment income. $0.2m; 4-period range $0.3m to $0.9m. Investment income: NZ$0.2m, below normal range; 4-period mean NZ$0.5m, range NZ$0.3m-NZ$0.9m.
  • HY25 MLN: Unprecedented high investment income. $0.9m; 4-period range $0.2m to $0.5m. Investment income: NZ$0.9m, unprecedented high; 4-period mean NZ$0.3m, range NZ$0.2m-NZ$0.5m.
  • FY25 MLN: Outside range high investment income. $1.2m; 4-period range $0.6m to $1.2m. Investment income: NZ$1.2m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$0.8m, range NZ$0.6m-NZ$1.2m.
Investment income: NZ$1.2m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$0.8m, range NZ$0.6m-NZ$1.2m.

Investment total return

Total income or return including fair-value or capital movement where disclosed.

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  • FY21 MLN: Outside range high investment total return. $78.1m; 4-period range $-58.5m to $42.9m. Investment total return: NZ$78.1m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$4.5m, range NZ$-58.5m-NZ$42.9m.
  • FY22 MLN: Unprecedented low investment total return. $-58.5m; 4-period range $5.9m to $78.1m. Investment total return: NZ$-58.5m, unprecedented low; 4-period mean NZ$38.6m, range NZ$5.9m-NZ$78.1m.
  • HY23 MLN: Unprecedented low investment total return. $-9.4m; 4-period range $6.3m to $12.4m. Investment total return: NZ$-9.4m, unprecedented low; 4-period mean NZ$9.8m, range NZ$6.3m-NZ$12.4m.
  • HY24 MLN: Outside range high investment total return. $12.4m; 4-period range $-9.4m to $11.3m. Investment total return: NZ$12.4m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$4.4m, range NZ$-9.4m-NZ$11.3m.
Investment total return: NZ$12.4m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$4.4m, range NZ$-9.4m-NZ$11.3m.

Net assets attributable

Net asset base attributable to shareholders or unitholders.

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  • FY21 MLN: Unprecedented high net assets attributable. $244.4m; 4-period range $178.1m to $222.9m. Net assets attributable: NZ$244.4m, unprecedented high; 4-period mean NZ$201.5m, range NZ$178.1m-NZ$222.9m.
  • HY22 MLN: Outside range high net assets attributable. $242.1m; 4-period range $161.9m to $224.7m. Net assets attributable: NZ$242.1m, above normal range; 4-period mean NZ$200.4m, range NZ$161.9m-NZ$224.7m.
  • FY22 MLN: Unprecedented low net assets attributable. $178.1m; 4-period range $192.8m to $244.4m. Net assets attributable: NZ$178.1m, unprecedented low; 4-period mean NZ$218.0m, range NZ$192.8m-NZ$244.4m.
  • HY23 MLN: Unprecedented low net assets attributable. $161.9m; 4-period range $201.6m to $242.1m. Net assets attributable: NZ$161.9m, unprecedented low; 4-period mean NZ$220.4m, range NZ$201.6m-NZ$242.1m.
Net assets attributable: NZ$161.9m, unprecedented low; 4-period mean NZ$220.4m, range NZ$201.6m-NZ$242.1m.
Release date
18 August 2025
Published
22 April 2026
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Key metrics

Numbers worth scanning first

FY25 vs FY24

Net profit after tax

$0.3m

Suppressed: metric quality flags mark this value as unsuitable for normal comparison.

Net cash inflow from operating activities

$7.2m

+454.1% ↑ vs −$2m

Declared dividend per share

—

— vs 2.1c

Investment income

$0m

Suppressed: metric quality flags mark this value as unsuitable for normal comparison.

Profit before tax

$2.5m

-93.5% ↓ vs $38.4m

Cash and cash equivalents

$3.2m

-55.7% ↓ vs $7.2m

Total assets

$214.9m

-4.7% ↓ vs $225.4m

What changed

Portfolio total return collapsed to $5.9m from $42.9m, down 86.3%, against a benchmark that returned an unprecedented 50.0% — well above the historical 4-period mean of 17.3% (range 0.8%–37.8%)

Investment income (dividends and interest) edged up 1.9% to $1.2m, above the historical mean of $0.8m and at the top of the four-period range.

Profit before tax fell 93.5% to $2.5m and NPAT fell 99.2% to $0.3m. The divergence is driven by an effective tax rate of 86.7%, unprecedented against a four-period mean of 2.1% and versus 3.1% in FY24. Net assets attributable declined 4.9% to $212.1m, within the historical range but trending down. Cash from operating activities — predominantly portfolio buy/sell flows — swung to +$7.2m from -$2.0m. The portfolio carries no borrowings.

What matters

Three points dominate the read on this result

First, manager performance against benchmark. A $5.9m portfolio total return on opening net assets of $222.9m implies roughly 2.6%, against a benchmark return of 50.0%. This is the defining feature of FY25 and sits at the lower edge of the four-period range ($-58.5m to $78.1m, mean $22.5m). Whatever positioning produced this gap dominates everything else in the result.

Second, tax distortion. The 86.7% effective tax rate converted a $2.5m PBT into $0.3m NPAT. PBT growth of -93.5% is the cleaner read on underlying performance; the headline NPAT growth of -99.2% overstates the year-on-year economic deterioration. The tax line is unprecedented against the historical mean of 2.1% and warrants direct explanation.

Third, distributions funded from capital. Distributions of $10.96m exceeded NPAT of $0.3m by a wide margin, so the $10.8m fall in net assets reflects distributions paid out of capital rather than purely investment losses. Distribution coverage of 11.1% sits at the upper edge of the historical range (mean 8.1%), but only because the denominator (recurring investment income) held up.

Expectations

No forward targets are disclosed in this release

The supplied historical pattern shows investment income above normal at $1.2m and distribution coverage at the upper edge of range — both indicators that support distribution-paying capacity from recurring income flows. Net assets remain within historical bounds.

However, the gap between portfolio total return of $5.9m and benchmark return of 50.0% is the dominant uncertainty heading into FY26. Release excerpts cite global equity volatility, recessionary concerns, and geopolitical uncertainty as the backdrop but do not bridge the gap from a 50% benchmark to a low single-digit portfolio outcome. Without portfolio attribution in the supplied data, the durability of FY25's underperformance against benchmark cannot be judged from this release.

Quality of result

The result is low-quality on portfolio-return terms but more durable on income generation

Investment income of $1.2m sits above the historical baseline and represents recurring dividend and interest flow rather than mark-to-market gains. Portfolio total return of $5.9m, by contrast, sits at the lower edge of the four-period range and explains almost all of the PBT collapse. ROE of 0.2% is materially below the four-period mean of 5.8%, reflecting a year where portfolio capital appreciation effectively did not occur.

Distributions of $10.96m exceeded current-year earnings by more than 30 times, so the 4.9% decline in net assets is partly distribution-driven rather than purely investment loss. The tax line, at 86.7% and unprecedented against the historical mean of 2.1%, materially distorted NPAT and converted $2.5m of PBT into $0.3m of NPAT. For an investment company, the durability question rests on whether the portfolio can re-engage with benchmark-like returns in FY26 rather than on accounting timing.

Unresolved

Open questions

What drove the 86.7% effective tax rate against a four-period mean of 2.1%, and is it a one-off recognition event or a structural change?
Why did the portfolio deliver roughly 2.6% when the benchmark returned an unprecedented 50.0% — was this defensive positioning, sector allocation, or stock-specific drawdowns?
How sustainable is the current distribution policy when distributions of $10.96m exceeded NPAT of $0.3m and net assets fell 4.9%?
What is the FY25 full-period dividend per share, and how does it compare with FY24's 2.07 cents?
Will manager positioning change given the magnitude of benchmark underperformance, or is the current allocation expected to mean-revert?

This briefing cannot assess portfolio attribution, sector exposure, or whether FY25's benchmark underperformance reflects deliberate positioning that may reverse in different market conditions.

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Ask about MLN FY25

Ask follow-up questions about Marlin Global's FY25 result.

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Sign in to ask questions about Marlin Global's FY25 result.

What drove the 86.7% effective tax rate against a four-period mean of 2.1%, and is it a one-off recognition event or a structural change?Why does "Three points dominate the read on this result" matter?How strong was the cash and earnings quality in FY25?What should I watch next for MLN after FY25?

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Data appendix

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Sources

Current period

Marlin Global 2025 Annual Report

FY25 / financial report↗

Prior comparable period

Marlin Global 2024 Annual Report

FY24 / financial report↗

Interim context

MLN - Commentary for Interim Period to 31 December 2024

HY25 / results release↗

MLN - Interim Financial Statements for period to 31 Dec 2024 including review report

HY25 / financial report↗

MLN - Preliminary half year announcement - 31 December 2024

HY25 / results announcement↗

Release context

Marlin ASM Presentation 6 November 2024

HY25 / commentary↗

Related insights

Cross-company views selected from the metrics in this briefing.

Earnings quality and statutory distortions

This result includes a statutory earnings-quality distortion flag.

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ROE and capital efficiency

ROE was 0.2%, -16.5pp versus the prior comparable period.

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Revenue growth context

Revenue growth was 1.9% for this reporting period.

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This briefing is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. It is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

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