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© 2026 Annolyse. Analytical briefings for NZX company announcements.

Table of contents

  1. What changed
  2. What matters
  3. Expectations
  4. Quality of result
  5. Unresolved
  6. Key metrics
  7. Analytical metrics
  8. Metric context
  9. Reference material
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Marlin Global (MLN) / HY25

NPAT fell 20.7% but NAV grew to NZ$224.7m as tax charge normalised

PBT declined a milder 12.7% — the cleaner read — as HY24's 3.9% effective tax rate flattered the base, while the interim dividend was lifted 10.2%...

Release date
21 February 2025
Published
22 April 2026
Table of Contents⌄
  1. What changed
  2. What matters
  3. Expectations
  4. Quality of result
  5. Unresolved
  6. Key metrics
  7. Analytical metrics
  8. Metric context
  9. Reference material

What changed

Revenue (investment income) fell 8.6% to NZ$11.3m and PBT fell 12.7% to NZ$9.3m. Reported NPAT fell more sharply, down 20.7% to NZ$8.1m, because the effective tax rate normalised to 12.7% from an unusually low 3.9% in HY24 — HY25 tax expense was NZ$1.2m. Operating cash flow swung from a NZ$11.4m outflow in HY24 to a NZ$8.4m inflow, lifting closing cash to NZ$9.5m from NZ$3.5m. Total assets rose 14.2% to NZ$230.9m and equity rose 11.5% to NZ$224.7m, so net asset value expanded despite the softer P&L. The declared interim dividend was raised 10.2% to 2.05cps.

What matters

  • Tax-driven NPAT optics. The 20.7% NPAT decline overstates the operating deterioration; PBT down 12.7% is the cleaner read, and the pp gap is almost entirely an ETR reset from 3.9% to 12.7%. Future periods will not benefit from last year's low-tax comparison.
  • NAV vs. earnings divergence. For a listed investment company this matters more than the income line: equity grew to NZ$224.7m while reported earnings fell. That suggests unrealised portfolio gains and/or share issuance (the dividend reinvestment plan issued 2.8m new shares for NZ$2.5m) are driving book value, not realised investment income.
  • Payout ratio stepped up. With the DPS rise against lower NPAT, the payout ratio on NPAT moved from 38.1% to 55.1%. ROE softened to 3.8% from 4.8%.

Expectations

No quantitative guidance or forward-work disclosure is provided. The only shape context is FY24: HY24 delivered just 28.8% of full-year revenue and 27.4% of full-year NPAT, meaning FY24 was heavily second-half weighted. HY25 revenue annualises to NZ$22.6m versus FY24's NZ$42.9m, so the FY25 outcome depends almost entirely on an H2 that — like H2 FY24 — will be dictated by market-driven portfolio returns rather than H1 run-rate. The HY25 release neither confirms nor contradicts a repeat of that pattern.

Quality of result

Earnings quality on the operating line is reasonable — the PBT decline is modest and reflects softer investment income against a comparable base. However, an LIC's reported profit is inherently mark-to-market and hence timing-driven rather than durable. The cash-flow swing to positive is a genuine improvement in closing liquidity but, for a fund vehicle, operating cash flow is dominated by portfolio churn timing and should not be read as a recurring cash-generation signal. The dividend increase is not supported by higher NPAT; it is funded partly by reinvestment (NZ$2.5m of new DRP shares) rather than organic earnings cover.

Unresolved

  • What drove the 8.6% fall in investment income — lower dividend receipts, fewer realised gains, or a mix shift within the portfolio?
  • Why did HY24 carry a 3.9% effective tax rate, and is the 12.7% HY25 rate the right forward assumption?
  • With the payout ratio now at 55.1% of NPAT and DPS rising into falling earnings, how is dividend sustainability framed against realised (rather than unrealised) returns?
  • Total liabilities jumped from NZ$0.6m to NZ$6.2m — composition is not disclosed in the provided extraction.

This briefing cannot assess portfolio composition, unrealised gain/loss split, or NAV-per-share and market-price discount, as share count and NTA per share were not provided.

Key metrics

← Swipe to view more
Key metrics table for Marlin Global HY25
Metric HY25 HY24 Change
Revenue $11.3m $12.4m -8.6% ↓
Net profit after tax $8.1m $10.2m -20.7% ↓
Net cash inflow from operating activities $8.4m −$11.4m +173.6% ↑
Final dividend per share 2.0c 1.9c +10.2% ↑
Profit before tax $9.3m $10.6m -12.7% ↓
Cash and cash equivalents $9.5m $3.5m +173.7% ↑
Total assets $230.9m $202.2m +14.2% ↑

Analytical metrics

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Analytical metrics table for Marlin Global HY25
Metric HY25 HY24 Context
PBT growth -12.7% — cleaner earnings measure
Effective tax rate 12.7% 3.9% —
Trade debtors — $0.12m —
Payout ratio vs NPAT 55.1% — —
ROE (annualised) 3.8% 4.8% Weakening
HY24 share of FY24 revenue 28.8% — Other half was 71.2%
HY24 share of FY24 NPAT 27.4% — Other half was 72.6%
Profit from continuing operations — $10.2m —

This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Source-backed analysis from the filing set attached to this briefing.

Metric context

Trajectory before this result

A compact view of the company's recent revenue and margin path, derived from the same metrics history that powers the company page.

MLN revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

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MLN revenue trajectory preview table
PeriodMLN
HY26$9.4b
FY25$5.9b
HY25$11.3m
FY24$42.9m
HY24$12.4m
FY23$27.6m

MLN EBITDA margin

Earnings margin across covered periods.

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MLN EBITDA margin preview table
PeriodMLN
HY26n/a
FY25n/a
HY25n/a
FY24n/a
HY24n/a
FY23n/a

Appendix

Reference material

Company materials considered in this briefing.

Current period

MLN - Interim Financial Statements for period to 31 Dec 2024 including review report

HY25 / financial report↗

MLN - Preliminary half year announcement - 31 December 2024

HY25 / results release↗

Prior comparable period

MLN - Interim financial statements for period 31 Dec 23 incl review report

HY24 / financial report↗

MLN - Preliminary half year announcement - 31 Dec 2023

HY24 / results release↗

Full-year context

MLN - Financial Statements for year ended 30 June 2024 incl audit report

FY24 / financial report↗

MLN - Preliminary year end announcement - 30 June 2024

FY24 / results release↗

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MLN revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

MLN EBITDA margin

Earnings margin across covered periods.