MPG flags $15m+ raise as NPAT loss widened to NZ$27.5m

Revenue fell 9.2% to NZ$239.3m, EBITDA (pre-IFRS) dropped to NZ$12.3m from NZ$18.2m, and the NPAT loss widened to NZ$27.5m from NZ$10.5m (NPAT growth -160.8%; PBT growth -177.8%). The decline was concentrated in New Zealand, where revenue fell to NZ$159.6m from NZ$186.7m and the segment result collapsed to NZ$1.3m from NZ$6.4m. Australia (AGG) edged revenue up to NZ$79.7m and lifted its result to NZ$6.8m.

Operating cash flow rose to NZ$18.9m from NZ$5.7m, helping cut net debt by NZ$7m to NZ$53.0m. Equity fell 35.1% to NZ$49.0m and ROE deteriorated to -44.2% from -14.9%.

• Despite the NZ$7m debt paydown, leverage sits at 4.3x EBITDA and the company has flagged a raise of "at least NZ$15m". The operating result no longer covers the cost of the current capital structure, which is why the equity raise is being put forward rather than relying on further self-help.

• The New Zealand business is the problem, not Australia. AGG delivered NZ$6.8m segment result on NZ$79.7m of revenue; New Zealand delivered NZ$1.3m on NZ$159.6m. Revenue mix shifted 4.2pp toward Australia, but NZ's operating leverage works heavily against the group when domestic volumes fall. Annolyse's historical baseline shows ROE of -44.2% is below the prior three-period range (-31.8% to -0.5%), and PBT margin at -12.3% is also below the historical range.

• Cash improvement is balance-sheet-assisted, not earnings-led. Operating working capital released NZ$10.9m as inventories fell 19.4% and trade debtors 12.5%. Inventory days at 39.1 are below the historical range of 42.4-44.1 days, so further cash release from this lever looks limited.

The first-half context, however, is informative: HY24 EBITDA was NZ$16.5m against full-year EBITDA of NZ$12.3m, implying second-half EBITDA of approximately -NZ$4.2m. Second-half revenue was also softer at an implied NZ$109.1m versus NZ$130.2m in HY24. The shape matters because it indicates the run-rate entering FY25 is materially worse than the FY24 average, and the announced raise is being calibrated against that exit pace rather than the headline full-year number.

The release also references new building regulations as an expected demand driver, but the timing and quantum of any benefit are not specified.

EBITDA fell roughly a third, the operating loss widened to NZ$18.3m from NZ$0.2m, and the implied H2 EBITDA was negative. Operating cash conversion of 153.8% of EBITDA is mechanically strong but reflects an NZ$10.9m release from receivables and inventory rather than improving trading. FCF of NZ$14.9m at -54.3% of NPAT does not represent durable earnings power.

Capex at 1.7% of revenue (NZ$4.0m) is modest and likely below maintenance over a multi-year window, which means the cash-conversion read flatters underlying capital intensity. Tax was a NZ$1.9m credit at a 6.4% effective rate against a much larger pre-tax loss, so the NPAT-PBT gap of 17.0pp does not change the operating read.

• OCF NZ$18.9m, less capex NZ$4.0m = FCF (pre-lease) NZ$14.9m
• Working capital contributed approximately NZ$10.9m of the OCF uplift

This briefing cannot assess the pricing, underwriting status, or shareholder approval pathway of the proposed equity raise, nor any unannounced refinancing terms.