Net debt climbs to 5.05x EBITDA even as PBT rises 33.9%

Profit before tax rose 33.9% to $241.2 million from $180.1 million, but this was flattered by a lower effective tax rate of 35.9% versus 55.6% prior. Revenue and EBITDA comparisons against FY24 are not like-for-like: the prior period included the now-discontinued Gas Trading operations, so the headline EBITDA figures (current $401.1 million) sit on a different perimeter than FY24's $523.5 million. Capex fell 7.8% to $470.1 million, still 42.6% of revenue.

Net debt/EBITDA moving from 3.75x to 5.05x, alongside a cash balance down to $23.3 million, means less financial flexibility to absorb further capex or rate shocks without additional borrowing, which matters given gross borrowings are already at $2,049.1 million.

Tax volatility, not operating improvement, drives much of the reported profit gain. The swing from a 55.6% to a 35.9% effective tax rate explains most of the 33.9% PBT growth; PBT is the cleaner read here because NPAT and continuing-operations profit figures are currently suppressed pending source verification, so investors cannot cross-check the tax effect against a clean bottom line.

The revenue and EBITDA comparisons are distorted by the discontinued Gas Trading business in the prior period, so a straight percentage comparison of FY25 to FY24 headline revenue (down 3.3%) or EBITDA overstates or understates the underlying continuing-operations trend; only continuing-operations figures should be used for trend reads.

The full-year dividend of 25 cents per share versus 24 cents prior, and a disclosed 85% payout ratio on an FCF basis, indicate a capital-allocation stance that assumes continued cash generation, but with no forward capex or debt target disclosed, it is not possible to judge whether the current leverage trajectory is intended to stabilise or continue rising.

The PBT growth of 33.9% is not fully durable as an operating signal because it is partly a function of a lower effective tax rate (35.9% versus 55.6%) rather than a comparable increase in underlying trading performance, and the discontinued Gas Trading operation in the prior period further limits like-for-like comparability of revenue and EBITDA trends.

This briefing cannot assess NPAT, continuing-operations profit, or the discontinued-operation after-tax result, as these figures remain suppressed pending source verification.