PBT fell 3.0% on 11.0% revenue growth as tax normalisation lifted NPAT 31.4%

NPAT jumped 31.4% to $274.3M because the effective tax rate dropped from 47.2% to 28.5%, not because underlying performance improved. EBITDA grew 5.7% to $761.5M.

Geographically, Australia delivered what the company described as a record result and is now the largest profit and revenue contributor, while management explicitly cited profit declines in New Zealand, Asia and the Americas. Within activities, Air & Ocean revenue grew 20.9% to $2,108.2M, lifting its share of group revenue to 40.3% from 37.0%, but its segment result fell to $150.2M from $163.3M.

Group Operating Cash Flows rose 15.8% to $584.4M, reflecting improved cash collection and working capital movements per the Mainfreight Full Year Results to 31 March 2025. Current debt facilities total $504M, of which $125M was drawn. The full-year dividend was 172.0c, unchanged from the prior year, with the final component at 87.0c.

The 31.4% NPAT increase is almost entirely a tax effect — PBT fell 3.0% despite 11.0% revenue growth, so on a pre-tax basis the business generated more revenue for slightly less profit. The cleaner operating read this year is PBT, not NPAT, and ROE rising to 13.8% from 11.3% partly reflects the same tax swing.

Air & Ocean margin compression and narrow geographic contribution. Air & Ocean's revenue share rose by 3.3 percentage points to 40.3%, yet its segment result fell roughly $13M, and Transport's result also softened to $169.8M from $172.5M. With management disclosing profit declines in three of four regional businesses, the result depends materially on Australia continuing to carry the group.

Cash generation strengthened on durable inputs. OCF/EBITDA improved to 76.7% from 70.0%, FCF before lease payments lifted to $330.7M from $250.4M, and FCF covered NPAT at 120.6% on capex of just 4.8% of revenue. Receivable days tightened to 44.7 from 47.6, suggesting collection discipline rather than a one-off working-capital release.

On shape, HY25 contributed 48.7% of full-year revenue but only 41.8% of NPAT, so the second half carried disproportionate earnings — reflecting in part the lower full-year tax rate that gets credited across both halves on consolidation.

Payout ratio versus pre-lease FCF is suppressed because the source-backed cash-dividend bridge is unavailable.

Group Operating Cash Flows rose 15.8%, cash conversion to EBITDA improved nearly seven percentage points to 76.7%, and FCF before lease payments of $330.7M covered NPAT at 120.6% on capex equal to just 4.8% of revenue. The improvement in receivable days, rather than payable extension or inventory release, points to operational collections discipline rather than balance-sheet timing.

The earnings read is weaker than the headline. PBT declined 3.0% on 11.0% revenue growth, meaning the group is currently generating more revenue at lower pre-tax margins. The NPAT lift and the ROE improvement to 13.8% are largely the mechanical effect of the effective tax rate falling 18.7 percentage points; absent that swing, the after-tax line would have tracked PBT lower. Australia's record contribution is real, but the disclosed profit declines across the other three regions mean the underlying earnings base is narrower than the consolidated growth rate implies, and durability depends on whether the non-Australian regions recover from here.

This briefing cannot assess the durability of the current effective tax rate or the trajectory of recovery in the three regions with declining profit without further disclosure from management.