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Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published

PBT margin fell to 6.5%, the weakest in four years, as NPAT slipped to NZ$251.0m

Operating margins compressed even as pre-lease free cash flow climbed to NZ$392.1m on capex restraint.

MFT revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

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FY26 was $5.4b, versus $5.2b in FY25.

MFT EBITDA margin

EBITDA margin across covered periods.

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  • FY22 MFT FY: Unprecedented low ebitda margin. 13.6%; 4-period range 14.1% to 15.3%. EBITDA margin: 13.6%, unprecedented low; 4-period mean 14.7%, range 14.1%-15.3%.
  • FY24 MFT FY: Outside range high ebitda margin. 15.3%; 4-period range 13.6% to 15%. EBITDA margin: 15.3%, above normal range; 4-period mean 14.3%, range 13.6%-15.0%.
EBITDA margin: 15.3%, above normal range; 4-period mean 14.3%, range 13.6%-15.0%.

MFT operating cash flow

Operating cash flow across covered periods.

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FY26 was $589.4m, versus $584.4m in FY25.

MFT working-capital movement

Operating working-capital absorption or release by reporting period.

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HY25 was $101.4m, versus -$226.9m in HY24.

Market context

Valuation

These ratios pair a market close from around the result date with verified filing data. An unavailable metric means the required inputs were missing or unsuitable for comparison.

Prices as at close, 31 August 2026

Price and market cap

The latest close and share count context for the market price.

Market cap

$6.7b

i

End-of-day close multiplied by current shares on issue.

Profitability multiples

How the market price compares with recent earnings and cash-flow inputs.

P/E

26.88x

i

Recent market cap compared with trailing earnings.

EPS

2.49

i

Recent filing-derived earnings per share.

PEG

Not available

i

Not meaningful without positive comparable earnings growth.

EV/EBITDA

Not available

i

Not available for this company right now.

P/FCF

17.2x

i

Market cap compared with recent free cash flow.

P/B

3.15x

i

Market value compared with latest reported equity.

Income and investment-company measures

Yield and investment-company valuation where supported.

Dividend yield

2.6%

i

Trailing dividends compared with the latest close.

Total return

Not available

i

Available once dividend and adjustment data are verified.

Release date
28 May 2026
Published
28 May 2026

Key metrics

Numbers worth scanning first

FY26 vs FY25

Revenue

$5.4b

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

EBITDA

$759.8m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Net profit after tax

$251m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Net cash inflow from operating activities

$589.4m

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Full-year dividend per share

172.0c

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Total assets

$4.4b

Caveat: metric quality flags apply; use this value with basis context.

Analysis ofMFT FY26Result releasedAnnolyse analysis published

What changed

The clearest signal is margin compression: profit-before-tax margin landed at 6.5%, an unprecedented low against the supplied four-period historical range of 7.3% to 10.3% (mean 8.9%)

PBT fell to NZ$350.9m from NZ$383.6m and NPAT fell to NZ$251.0m from NZ$274.3m, while revenue lifted modestly to NZ$5.4b and EBITDA was essentially flat at NZ$759.8m versus NZ$761.5m.

Cash held its shape: operating cash flow was NZ$589.4m versus NZ$584.4m. Gross borrowings stepped up to NZ$1.4b from NZ$165.0m, but this primarily captures lease liabilities (NZ$1.3b current and non-current) being presented inside the borrowings line — a presentation basis shift rather than fresh debt funding, which means the headline net-debt-to-EBITDA jump should not be read as a clean leverage deterioration.

What matters

Margin compression is more economically material than the revenue lift

Revenue grew but the cost base grew faster, and the supplied historical baseline puts PBT margin below anything in the prior four years. Inside the segments, Transport — the largest contributor at NZ$2.5b of revenue — saw derived margin slip from 7.5% to 6.2%, and Air & Ocean revenue fell to NZ$2b from NZ$2.1b. This matters because the read on the business is about pricing and unit-cost discipline, not volume.

Working capital absorbed NZ$107.5m of cash, at the upper edge of the supplied historical range (mean NZ$37.9m, prior builds averaging NZ$171.1m), with debtor days at 50.8 against a four-period mean of 47.1. Receivables grew faster than revenue, which understates the cash pressure beneath a reported operating cash flow that looks steady.

Pre-lease free cash flow of NZ$392.1m sits above Annolyse's historical baseline mean of NZ$339.7m, helped by capex stepping back to NZ$197.3m from NZ$234.5m (3.7% of revenue). The full-year dividend was 172 cents per share on the same annual basis. This matters because cash output rose while earnings fell — capital intensity, not operating gearing, is doing the work.

Expectations

No stated targets were disclosed

Management commentary attached to the release flags an improved second half: H2 PBT of NZ$219.2m versus H1 PBT of NZ$131.7m, and "improving returns" called out for the USA. That shape is consistent with the implied H2 EBITDA of NZ$429.4m and H2 NPAT of NZ$157.6m inferred from the half-year context, so 64% of full-year PBT sat in the second half.

The gap that matters is whether the H2 run-rate persists into FY27. The release does not quantify the USA recovery in dollar terms, so the durability of the second-half rebound rests on management commentary rather than disclosed forward work.

Quality of result

Earnings fell while cash held — that combination usually flatters quality, but the underlying picture is more nuanced

Pre-lease FCF/NPAT of 156.2% looks strong, but it was assisted by a NZ$37.2m reduction in capex and a working capital line that consumed NZ$107.5m. If the receivables build is structural (collection cycles elongating with customer mix), the cash position is harder to repeat; if it reverses, FY27 cash would be supported.

Cash conversion versus EBITDA carries a basis-discontinuity caveat in this release because lease and borrowing presentation has shifted, so the ratio should not be read as a clean like-for-like trend versus prior periods; the more reliable read is that absolute operating cash was steady at NZ$589.4m while earnings fell, and the H2 PBT recovery to NZ$219.2m is the most durability-positive signal. Segment margin compression in Transport and the Air & Ocean revenue decline suggest the headline H2 rebound is not yet broad-based.

Unresolved

Open questions

Why did Transport's derived segment margin compress from 7.5% to 6.2% on revenue that grew to NZ$2,492.9m, and which cost lines drove it?
What is driving the NZ$127.4m revenue decline in Air & Ocean, and is it volume, rate, or mix?
How much of the H2 PBT lift to NZ$219.2m is attributable to the USA improvement, and is that pricing or volume?
Why did debtor days rise to 50.8 from a historical mean of 47.1, and is that a customer-mix or collection-cycle change?
Will FY27 capex return toward the prior NZ$234.5m level, or is the lower 3.7%-of-revenue run-rate the new baseline?

This briefing cannot assess underlying volume trends, pricing, or country-level profitability detail because segment commentary in the release is qualitative rather than quantified.

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Why did Transport's derived segment margin compress from 7.5% to 6.2% on revenue that grew to NZ$2,492.9m, and which cost lines drove it?Why does "Margin compression is more economically material than the revenue lift" matter?How strong was the cash and earnings quality in FY26?What should I watch next for MFT after FY26?

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Data appendix

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Sources

Current period

Mainfreight Full Year Financial Results to 31 March 2026

FY26 / financial report

Mainfreight FY 2026 Commentary

FY26 / results release

Mainfreight FY 2026 Presentation

FY26 / results presentation

Prior comparable period

Mainfreight Full Year Financial Results to 31 March 2025

FY25 / financial report

Mainfreight FY 2025 Commentary

FY25 / results release

Mainfreight FY25 Full Year Presentation

FY25 / results presentation

Interim context

Mainfreight Financial Statements to 30 September 2025

HY26 / financial report

Mainfreight Half Year Presentation 2026

HY26 / results presentation

Mainfreight HY Commentary to September 2025

HY26 / results release

Mainfreight Results Announcement 30 September 2025

HY26 / results announcement

Release context

Mainfreight Annual Meeting Results 2025

HY26 / commentary

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