Mainfreight (MFT) / HY25

Revenue up 8.4% but NPAT fell 8.0% as Mainfreight swung to net debt

Top-line recovery and higher EBITDA were more than offset below the line, while cash fell NZ$86.6m and receivable days stretched.

Release date
13 November 2024
Published
21 April 2026

What changed

Revenue rebounded 8.4% to NZ$2,552.1m and EBITDA rose 6.4% to NZ$340.9m, but the recovery did not reach the bottom line. PBT fell 7.8% to NZ$161.2m and NPAT fell 8.0% to NZ$114.6m, implying the cost lines below EBITDA (depreciation, amortisation and finance costs) absorbed more than the full operating gain. Operating cash flow edged up 2.7% to NZ$191.8m, but cash on hand fell NZ$86.6m to NZ$147.9m while gross borrowings rose to NZ$236.3m, flipping the group from a small net cash position to net debt of around NZ$88.4m. Trade debtors rose 16.4% to NZ$721.1m, outpacing revenue growth. The interim dividend was held flat at NZ$0.85 per share.

What matters

  • Earnings drag is structural, not tax-driven. The effective tax rate was essentially unchanged at 28.9% versus 28.8%, so the PBT fall of 7.8% is the cleanest read on operating earnings quality. Revenue grew 8.4% and EBITDA grew 6.4%, yet PBT fell; the squeeze is occurring in depreciation, amortisation and/or finance costs, consistent with a heavy property and capex footprint now carrying higher financing cost.
  • Balance-sheet direction has reversed. Cash down NZ$86.6m, borrowings up NZ$22.6m, and working capital tied up in receivables up NZ$101.4m together explain the move from net cash to net debt. Net-debt-to-EBITDA is still modest at roughly 0.3x, but the direction is unambiguously weaker.
  • Dividend is not covered by free cash. Pre-lease FCF of NZ$68.1m represents a payout ratio of about 126% against the NZ$0.85 interim dividend, and 74.7% of NPAT. The current distribution therefore relies on cash buffers or debt capacity, not in-period cash generation.

Expectations

No quantified forward-work or earnings targets were disclosed in the extracted materials, so this release cannot be measured against management guidance. Against FY24 shape, annualised HY25 revenue of NZ$5.10b sits about 8.2% above FY24's NZ$4.72b, and FY24 was second-half weighted on EBITDA (H1 only 44.5% of full-year EBITDA) but first-half weighted on NPAT (H1 at 59.7%). If that seasonal pattern repeats, EBITDA momentum into the second half is supportable, but NPAT is likely to step down sequentially, and the full-year NPAT trajectory depends heavily on whether the sub-EBITDA cost creep persists.

Quality of result

The revenue and EBITDA recovery look genuine, but several features reduce the quality of the reported result. Cash conversion weakened, with OCF-to-EBITDA slipping to 56.3% from 58.3%, because EBITDA grew faster than operating cash flow. Receivable days stretched to 51.4 from 47.9, consuming NZ$101.4m of incremental working capital and accounting for much of the cash drawdown. Capex of NZ$123.7m remained heavy at 4.8% of revenue. The gap between headline EBITDA growth and PBT decline indicates that fixed-cost absorption below the EBITDA line, not one-off items, is doing the damage – no non-recurring items were flagged in the extracted disclosures.

Unresolved

  • How much of the below-EBITDA cost increase is depreciation from recently opened facilities (transient) versus structurally higher finance costs (durable)?
  • Why did trade debtors grow roughly twice as fast as revenue, and is this a customer-mix shift, a collection issue, or period-end timing?
  • With the dividend uncovered by FCF and the balance sheet now in net debt, what is management's tolerance for further leverage given the ongoing capex programme?
  • No segment-level disclosure, forward-work book, or customer concentration detail was extracted, so the geographic and divisional drivers of the margin squeeze remain opaque.

This briefing cannot assess segment performance, regional mix, or valuation, because segment data, guidance, and a market price were not supplied in the extracted materials.

Key metrics

← Swipe to view more
Metric HY25 HY24 Change
Revenue $2552.1m $2355.0m +8.4% ↑
EBITDA $340.9m $320.3m +6.4% ↑
Net profit after tax $114.6m $124.5m -8.0% ↓
Net cash inflow from operating activities $191.8m $186.8m +2.7% ↑
Interim dividend per share 85.0c 85.0c flat
Cash and cash equivalents $147.9m $234.5m -36.9% ↓
Total assets $3959.8m $3494.4m +13.3% ↑

Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/mft-hy25

Analytical metrics

← Swipe to view more
Metric HY25 HY24 Context
PBT growth -7.8%
Effective tax rate 28.9% 28.8%
OCF / EBITDA (cash conversion) 56.3% 58.3% deteriorated
FCF pre-lease $68.1m $58.9m +$9.1m
FCF post-lease $68.1m $58.9m +$9.1m
FCF / NPAT 59.4% 47.3% complementary conversion metric
Capex % revenue 4.8% 5.4%
Capex −$123.7m −$127.9m +$4.1m
Debtor days 51.4 47.9 +3.5 days
Operating working capital $721.1m $619.7m +$101.4m absorbed
Trade debtors $721.1m $619.7m +$101.4m
Net debt $88.4m −$20.9m +$109.2m
Net debt / EBITDA 0.26x -0.07x Weakening
Gross borrowings $236.3m $213.7m +$22.6m
Payout ratio vs NPAT 74.7%
Payout ratio vs FCF pre-lease 125.8% not covered
ROE (annualised) 6.1% 7.0% Weakening
HY24 share of FY24 revenue 49.9% Other half was 50.1%
HY24 share of FY24 EBITDA 44.5% Other half was 55.5%
HY24 share of FY24 NPAT 59.7% Other half was 40.3%
Profit from continuing operations $114.6m $124.5m −$10.0m

Reference: annolyse.ai/briefings/mft-hy25


This analysis was generated using Annolyse, an AI-powered tool that analyses NZX company announcements. The analysis is based on available company filings and standard Annolyse calculations. This is general information only and does not constitute financial advice. The analysis may contain errors. Always read the original company filings and consult a licensed financial adviser before making investment decisions.

Metric context

Trajectory before this result

A compact view of the company's recent revenue and margin path, derived from the same metrics history that powers the company page.

MFT revenue trajectory

Revenue context before the current result.

MFT EBITDA margin

Earnings margin across covered periods.

Appendix

Reference material

Company materials considered in this briefing.

Current period

Mainfreight Financial Statements to 30 September 2024

HY25 / financial report

Mainfreight Results Announcement 30 September 2024

HY25 / results announcement

Mainfreight Results Announcement 30 September 2024

HY25 / results release

Prior comparable period

Mainfreight Financial Statements 30 September 2023

HY24 / financial report

Mainfreight Results Announcement 30 September 2023

HY24 / results announcement

Mainfreight Results Announcement 30 September 2023

HY24 / results release

Full-year context

Mainfreight Full Year Financial Results to 31 March 2024

FY24 / financial report

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