Millennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand

No numeric guidance, forward bookings, or stated targets were provided. Management said only that MCK expects to remain profitable in 2022.

Seasonality context is mixed: FY21 was first-half weighted (HY21 was 59.7% of FY21 revenue and 63.3% of FY21 NPAT), largely because H2 FY21 was hit by Delta-era restrictions. Annualising HY22 revenue gives roughly NZ$167.3m, marginally above FY21's NZ$164.8m, but that comparison flatters H2 because the second-half run-rate depends heavily on lumpy land-development settlements rather than hotel recovery. The filing does not support a confident shape call for H2.

• Why did cash fall NZ$71.4m y/y when OCF less capex was still a positive NZ$20.8m? The filing excerpts do not quantify dividend outflows, investments in CDLI/KIN, or other financing movements in a way that closes the gap.
• What is the pipeline of remaining CDL Investments land settlements, on which the majority of group profit now depends?
• When, if ever, does Hotel Operations turn profitable on a segment basis, and what occupancy/ADR step-up would that require?
• Why was NPAT down 39.2% when PBT was down only 22.5% and the effective tax rate fell? Minority interest in the CDL subsidiary is the likely driver, but it is not separately disclosed in the supplied excerpts.

This briefing cannot assess valuation, since no share price was provided alongside the NZ$3.00 NTA per share figure, and it cannot assess hotel-level operating KPIs (RevPAR, occupancy, ADR) because none were disclosed in the supplied material.