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Price action is noise

In the short run, the market is a voting machine; in the long run, a weighing machine. Short-term prices reflect sentiment, forced trades, algorithmic flows, and headlines — not the economic reality of the business.

Benjamin Graham, The Intelligent Investor chapter 8.

Below, each covered company's fundamental volatility, price volatility, and price direction are shown separately, so a high noise ratio says which kind of Mr. Market move occurred.

Rankings as of 07-06-2026 2:58am NZT, based on Annolyse's coverage of 103 NZX companies.

11

Euphoric Mr. Market

12

Panicking Mr. Market

6

Underreacting market

58

Aligned movement

2

Insufficient data

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Price action is noise company ranking
SCTScott Technology7.0%58.1%up+41.7%8.3×Euphoric Mr. Market
FCGFonterra Co-operative Group8.4%43.4%up+38.5%5.1×Euphoric Mr. Market
LICLivestock Improvement Corporation5.2%25.5%up+27.4%4.9×Euphoric Mr. Market
HGHHeartland Group HoldingsPBT growth: 1184.9%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -24.6%, range -89.9%-8.9%.11.1%52.4%up+59.7%4.7×Euphoric Mr. Market
TRATurners Automotive Group9.0%37.5%up+26.9%4.2×Euphoric Mr. Market
RADRadius Residential CareEBITDA margin: 13.7%, above normal range; 3-period mean 11.8%, range 9.7%-13.4%.14.2%46.8%up+37.5%3.3×Euphoric Mr. Market
RAKRakonPBT growth: 73.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean -3218.6%, range -9571.7%-14.9%.30.2%98.1%up+176.8%3.2×Euphoric Mr. Market
SANSanford17.6%41.2%up+33.3%2.3×Euphoric Mr. Market
IKEikeGPS GroupPBT growth: 54.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -33.1%, range -91.0%-16.2%.69.6%45.3%up+32.3%0.7×Euphoric Mr. Market
SCLScales CorporationEBITDA margin: 18.9%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 12.4%, range 9.5%-15.1%.85.2%36.1%up+33.3%0.4×Euphoric Mr. Market
CHIChannel Infrastructure NZOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 79.6%, above normal range; 4-period mean 33.3%, range -24.6%-68.2%.n/m47.7%up+49.8%n/mEuphoric Mr. Market
KMDKMD Brands20.0%139.2%down-74.5%7.0×Panicking Mr. Market
EBOEBOS Group13.0%75.4%down-47.0%5.8×Panicking Mr. Market
SUMSummerset Group HoldingsRevenue growth: 13.1%, below normal range; 3-period mean 15.9%, range 14.0%-17.5%.13.1%58.1%down-27.6%4.4×Panicking Mr. Market
SKOSerkoOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-0.4m, below normal range; 2/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$7.4m, and none had a working-capital release.34.9%80.9%down-46.3%2.3×Panicking Mr. Market
ATMThe a2 Milk Company30.4%62.3%down-27.8%2.1×Panicking Mr. Market
SKCSkyCity Entertainment Group36.3%72.7%down-47.4%2.0×Panicking Mr. Market
TRUTruscreen Group42.2%55.6%down-20.8%1.3×Panicking Mr. Market
AOFAoFrioEBITDA margin: 2.2%, below normal range; 3-period mean 4.7%, range 3.2%-6.8%.38.6%49.4%down-24.2%1.3×Panicking Mr. Market
ENSEnprise Group71.5%62.0%down-41.3%0.9×Panicking Mr. Market
WINWinton Land60.0%46.5%down-24.8%0.8×Panicking Mr. Market
STUSteel & Tube Holdings100.0%74.1%down-45.6%0.7×Panicking Mr. Market
MPGMetro Performance GlassPBT growth: 95.2%, above normal range; 4-period mean -681.2%, range -2443.5%-0.0%.225.0%76.4%down-36.1%0.3×Panicking Mr. Market
DGLDelegat Group6.4%32.0%flat-2.4%5.0×Underreacting market
CMOThe Colonial Motor CompanyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-29.6m, below normal range; 3/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$46.7m, and 1 had releases averaging NZ$-18.8m.8.8%26.9%flat-1.0%3.1×Underreacting market
NZMNZME14.9%20.9%flat0.0%1.4×Underreacting market
FPHFisher & Paykel Healthcare24.9%25.1%flat+0.3%1.0×Underreacting market
RYMRyman Healthcare94.1%42.1%flat+3.2%0.4×Underreacting market
AFCAFC Group HoldingsPBT growth: -442.6%, unprecedented low; 4-period mean 61.9%, range 20.2%-130.3%.48.4%0.0%flat0.0%0.0×Underreacting market
SPKSpark New ZealandOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 134.6%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 61.0%, range 35.4%-85.1%.2.4%38.3%down-16.7%16.1×Aligned movement
MOVMOVE Logistics Group4.7%66.1%up+8.2%14.0×Aligned movement
MHJMichael Hill InternationalOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-5.8m, above normal range; 0/3 prior periods had builds, and 3 had releases averaging NZ$-66.5m.3.0%40.0%down-9.3%13.4×Aligned movement
MFTMainfreight2.8%28.3%down-9.4%10.1×Aligned movement
APLAsset Plus3.8%36.1%down-9.7%9.5×Aligned movement
MFBMy Food Bag GroupEBITDA margin: 9.6%, below normal range; 3-period mean 12.6%, range 9.9%-17.6%.5.0%44.1%up+33.3%8.8×Aligned movement
PCTPrecinct Properties3.8%30.9%down-14.3%8.2×Aligned movement
ARGArgosy Property3.7%26.1%flat-1.9%7.0×Aligned movement
THLTourism Holdings11.0%76.1%up+83.0%6.9×Aligned movement
CNUChorusEBITDA margin: 70.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 69.5%, range 69.0%-70.2%.3.2%21.5%up+12.6%6.8×Aligned movement
OCAOceania HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 190.3%, above normal range; 3-period mean 130.3%, range 81.2%-182.0%.7.4%44.7%up+25.8%6.0×Aligned movement
GXHGreen Cross Health16.9%100.0%up+164.1%5.9×Aligned movement
NTLNew Talisman Gold MinesRevenue growth: 0.0%, above normal range; 3-period mean -55.1%, range -100.0%--24.9%.31.1%148.9%down-82.9%4.8×Aligned movement
SMLSynlait MilkEBITDA margin: -4.5%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 6.5%, range 3.0%-8.7%.15.2%69.8%down-40.7%4.6×Aligned movement
BGPBriscoe GroupOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-14.0m, below normal range; 2/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$14.9m, and 2 had releases averaging NZ$-6.7m.8.3%36.7%down-5.8%4.4×Aligned movement
SVRSavorPBT growth: 222.9%, unprecedented high; 5-period mean 16.3%, range -63.0%-93.8%.10.3%38.7%down-10.5%3.8×Aligned movement
FRWFreightways Group9.9%35.1%up+25.4%3.5×Aligned movement
KPGKiwi Property Group8.6%29.0%flat+2.2%3.4×Aligned movement
TAHThird Age Health Services22.9%77.2%up+36.0%3.4×Aligned movement
CVTComvita18.3%59.6%up+23.7%3.3×Aligned movement
GTKGentrack Group Limited 6 months to 31 March 202638.5%113.9%down-68.2%3.0×Aligned movement
AIAAuckland International Airport7.9%21.9%up+7.4%2.8×Aligned movement
BLTBLIS TechnologiesOperating working-capital movement: NZ$1.8m, above normal range; 0/3 prior periods had builds, and 3 had releases averaging NZ$-0.2m.16.0%44.4%down-5.9%2.8×Aligned movement
VGLVista Group International30.6%82.5%down-37.5%2.7×Aligned movement
PGWPGG Wrightson10.5%27.1%flat+1.4%2.6×Aligned movement
PEBPacific Edge45.8%112.6%up+203.0%2.5×Aligned movement
SPNSouth Port New ZealandRevenue growth: 17.5%, above normal range; 4-period mean 6.2%, range -0.2%-16.1%.17.5%42.9%up+45.8%2.5×Aligned movement
GNZGoodman Property Trust10.5%23.1%up+5.1%2.2×Aligned movement
PHLPromisia HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 96.2%, below normal range; 3-period mean 167.2%, range 107.1%-197.5%.29.1%60.4%up+83.8%2.1×Aligned movement
FBUFletcher BuildingOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 47.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -8.9%, range -37.6%-31.2%.20.0%39.9%flat-1.9%2.0×Aligned movement
NPHNapier Port Holdings17.3%31.3%up+15.9%1.8×Aligned movement
SEKSeekaEBITDA margin: 21.8%, above normal range; 3-period mean 13.5%, range 8.6%-18.5%.25.9%37.4%up+25.2%1.4×Aligned movement
GENGeneral CapitalRevenue growth: 19.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 54.3%, range 29.7%-94.7%.19.0%27.1%flat+1.9%1.4×Aligned movement
AIRAir New ZealandOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-524.0m, below normal range; 3/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$102.0m, and none had a working-capital release.34.3%44.7%down-28.0%1.3×Aligned movement
MEEMe TodayEBITDA margin: -32.4%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -76.6%, range -97.7%--47.9%.53.8%61.5%down-15.5%1.1×Aligned movement
WHSThe Warehouse Group47.1%49.2%down-36.5%1.0×Aligned movement
SKTSky Network TelevisionPBT growth: 2472.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -33.4%, range -106.0%-8.9%.28.8%29.8%up+12.3%1.0×Aligned movement
HLGHallenstein Glasson32.3%32.8%up+24.7%1.0×Aligned movement
BRWBremworthRevenue growth: -49.7%, unprecedented low; 4-period mean -4.3%, range -14.4%-10.7%.49.7%50.0%up+16.7%1.0×Aligned movement
RUARua BioscienceRevenue growth: 92.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean -31.8%, range -100.0%-33.8%.92.2%84.3%up+7.1%0.9×Aligned movement
PFIProperty for Industry25.2%21.8%up+11.6%0.9×Aligned movement
CDICDL Investments New ZealandOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-0.3m, unprecedented low; 3/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$0.2m, and none had a working-capital release.37.4%30.7%down-10.1%0.8×Aligned movement
SKLSkellerup Holdings41.2%31.2%up+28.6%0.8×Aligned movement
MCYMercury NZ28.5%20.5%up+19.3%0.7×Aligned movement
MCKMillennium & Copthorne Hotels New Zealand40.1%26.1%up+14.8%0.7×Aligned movement
CENContact EnergyEBITDA margin: 30.9%, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.2%, range 23.7%-27.1%.23.8%13.7%flat+3.6%0.6×Aligned movement
ARBArborGen HoldingsEBITDA margin: 16.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 19.1%, range 17.7%-21.2%.97.6%55.7%down-41.5%0.6×Aligned movement
CCCCooks Coffee CompanyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$0.7m, above normal range; 1/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$0.4m, and 1 had releases averaging NZ$-3.7m.83.7%47.5%down-16.0%0.6×Aligned movement
GNEGenesis EnergyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$160.7m, above normal range; 1/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$29.5m, and 2 had releases averaging NZ$-392.3m.40.0%22.5%up+16.8%0.6×Aligned movement
BFGBurger Fuel GroupEBITDA margin: 18.4%, above normal range; 3-period mean 13.4%, range 13.2%-13.7%.41.6%23.3%up+6.6%0.6×Aligned movement
RTOBlackwell Global HoldingsPBT growth: -136.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 124.9%, range 53.1%-221.6%.77.2%38.4%down-17.3%0.5×Aligned movement
TGGT&G Global Limited and subsidiary companiesRevenue growth: 14.5%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -0.8%, range -4.4%-2.3%.270.4%52.5%up+35.6%0.2×Aligned movement
MELMeridian EnergyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$0.0m, above normal range; 0/3 prior periods had builds, and 3 had releases averaging NZ$-102.6m.96.9%13.3%flat+3.1%0.1×Aligned movement
IFTInfratilPBT growth: 354.8%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 14.4%, range -110.1%-214.2%.385.6%46.8%up+46.3%0.1×Aligned movement
NZKNew Zealand King Salmon InvestmentsOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 30.5%, below normal range; 3-period mean 178.7%, range 63.7%-342.6%.317.6%29.7%up+14.0%0.1×Aligned movement
IPRIperionPBT growth: 35.3%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 88.9%, range 45.3%-99.9%.35.3%0.0%flat0.0%0.0×Aligned movement
TWRTowern/m38.1%up+27.2%n/mAligned movement
ERDEROADEBITDA margin: 20.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 28.6%, range 25.8%-30.7%.n/m113.6%down-29.6%n/mAligned movement
VCTVectorEBITDA margin: 56.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 40.2%, range 36.2%-46.0%.6.1%26.0%up+17.9%4.3×Insufficient data
ARVArvida Group3.6%n/minsufficient datan/mInsufficient data
How this is calculated

Price volatility is the 52-week high-to-low range divided by the midpoint. Fundamental volatility is the larger of recent revenue change or EBITDA-equivalent change over the comparable period.

Noise ratio is price volatility divided by fundamental volatility. It is suppressed as n/m when fundamental volatility is below 2% and is capped visually at >100×. Fundamental volatility changes above 1000% are treated as n/m because they are usually denominator effects.

Price direction uses a 5% flat band. Euphoric and panicking Mr. Market rows require stable fundamentals with a price move of at least 20% in either direction.

Price volatility is the 52-week high-to-low range divided by the midpoint. Fundamental volatility is the larger of recent revenue or EBITDA-equivalent change. Noise ratio measures how much more the market moved than the business, but is only shown when fundamental volatility is at least 2% and is capped visually at >100×. High gaps indicate Mr. Market was particularly emotional; direction comes from the price-direction column. See the full principles methodology for thresholds and edge cases.

Listed investment vehicles are excluded from these principle rankings because operating cash flow and earnings-yield metrics work differently for these structures: AFI, BAI, BRM, HFL, KFL, MLN, TEM.

CVT and GNZ currently have incomplete 52-week market-data fields, so their noise ratios remain not meaningful until those inputs resolve.