The quality of a decision and the quality of its outcome are two different things. Good decisions can produce bad outcomes, and bad decisions can produce good outcomes — so judging investments by price movement alone confuses luck with skill.
Framing articulated by Annie Duke in Thinking in Bets, applied to investing by Charlie Munger.
Below, each covered company is shown by fundamental direction versus share price direction over the same window. The category makes the directional relationship explicit; the magnitude column keeps the price move visible beside the business trajectory.
Rankings as of 22-07-2026 10:06pm NZT, based on Annolyse's coverage of 100 NZX companies.
6
Opportunity signal
19
Aligned favourable
10
Stable
15
Decoupled upside
20
Decoupled downside
9
Aligned unfavourable
6
Warning signal
4
Insufficient data
Filter by group
Showing 89 of 89 companies.
| RYMRyman Healthcare | improving | down-12.3% | Fund. improving, price -12.3% | Opportunity signal |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGLVista Group International | improving | down-29.9% | Fund. improving, price -29.9% | Opportunity signal |
| NZMNZME | improving | down-6.1% | Fund. improving, price -6.1% | Opportunity signal |
| MHJMichael Hill InternationalDebtor days: 0.0 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 8.0 days, range 7.2 days-9.6 days. | improving | down-7.0% | Fund. improving, price -7.0% | Opportunity signal |
| ARBArborGen HoldingsEBITDA margin: 16.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 19.1%, range 17.7%-21.2%. | improving | down-43.5% | Fund. improving, price -43.5% | Opportunity signal |
| RUARua BioscienceRevenue growth: 92.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean -31.8%, range -100.0%-33.8%. | improving | down-19.0% | Fund. improving, price -19.0% | Opportunity signal |
| FPHFisher & Paykel Healthcare | improving | up+6.6% | Fund. improving, price +6.6% | Aligned favourable |
| GNZGoodman Property Trust | improving | flat+5.0% | Fund. improving, price +5.0% | Aligned favourable |
| FRWFreightways Group | improving | up+24.7% | Fund. improving, price +24.7% | Aligned favourable |
| SKLSkellerup Holdings | improving | up+38.3% | Fund. improving, price +38.3% | Aligned favourable |
| HGHHeartland Group HoldingsRevenue growth: 11.1%, above normal range; 4-period mean 6.8%, range -2.0%-10.2%. | improving | up+50.0% | Fund. improving, price +50.0% | Aligned favourable |
| THLTourism Holdings | improving | up+35.5% | Fund. improving, price +35.5% | Aligned favourable |
| HLGHallenstein GlassonDebtor days: 0.8 days, above normal range; 4-period mean 0.5 days, range 0.2 days-0.8 days. | improving | up+20.4% | Fund. improving, price +20.4% | Aligned favourable |
| SKTSky Network TelevisionRevenue growth: 7.7%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 1.9%, range -2.0%-4.1%. | improving | up+6.5% | Fund. improving, price +6.5% | Aligned favourable |
| DGLDelegat Group | improving | flat+0.2% | Fund. improving, price +0.2% | Aligned favourable |
| GXHGreen Cross Health | improving | up+143.3% | Fund. improving, price +143.3% | Aligned favourable |
| TGGT&G Global Limited and subsidiary companiesRevenue growth: 14.5%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -0.8%, range -4.4%-2.3%. | improving | flat0.0% | Fund. improving, price 0.0% | Aligned favourable |
| CMOThe Colonial Motor CompanyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-29.6m, below normal range; 3/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$46.7m, and none had a working-capital release. | improving | flat+2.1% | Fund. improving, price +2.1% | Aligned favourable |
| SPNSouth Port New ZealandRevenue growth: 17.5%, above normal range; 4-period mean 6.2%, range -0.2%-16.1%. | improving | up+13.7% | Fund. improving, price +13.7% | Aligned favourable |
| SEKSeekaEBITDA margin: 21.8%, above normal range; 3-period mean 13.5%, range 8.6%-18.5%. | improving | up+22.5% | Fund. improving, price +22.5% | Aligned favourable |
| CVTComvita | improving | up+46.8% | Fund. improving, price +46.8% | Aligned favourable |
| MFBMy Food Bag GroupDebtor days: 3.0 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 0.8 days, range 0.4 days-1.2 days. | improving | up+30.2% | Fund. improving, price +30.2% | Aligned favourable |
| TAHThird Age Health Services | improving | flat+4.2% | Fund. improving, price +4.2% | Aligned favourable |
| PHLPromisia HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 96.2%, below normal range; 3-period mean 167.2%, range 107.1%-197.5%. | improving | up+9.3% | Fund. improving, price +9.3% | Aligned favourable |
| BFGBurger Fuel GroupDebtor days: 28.3 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 30.3 days, range 28.9 days-32.4 days. | improving | flat+2.9% | Fund. improving, price +2.9% | Aligned favourable |
| MELMeridian EnergyRevenue growth: -11.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 12.1%, range -8.6%-38.1%. | stable | flat-2.4% | Fund. stable, price -2.4% | Stable |
| CENContact EnergyEBITDA margin: 30.9%, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.2%, range 23.7%-27.1%. | stable | flat+2.3% | Fund. stable, price +2.3% | Stable |
| MFTMainfreight | stable | flat-4.1% | Fund. stable, price -4.1% | Stable |
| ATMThe a2 Milk Company | stable | flat-0.6% | Fund. stable, price -0.6% | Stable |
| KPGKiwi Property GroupDebtor days: 11.1 days, below normal range; 4-period mean 14.1 days, range 12.1 days-17.5 days. | stable | flat0.0% | Fund. stable, price 0.0% | Stable |
| PFIProperty for Industry | stable | flat+2.2% | Fund. stable, price +2.2% | Stable |
| ARGArgosy Property | stable | flat-4.0% | Fund. stable, price -4.0% | Stable |
| PGWPGG Wrightson | stable | flat+0.5% | Fund. stable, price +0.5% | Stable |
| RADRadius Residential CareDebtor days: 21.2 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 27.4 days, range 24.0 days-32.6 days. | stable | flat+2.5% | Fund. stable, price +2.5% | Stable |
| IPRIperion | stable | flat0.0% | Fund. stable, price 0.0% | Stable |
| EBOEBOS Group | stable | down-44.7% | Fund. stable, price -44.7% | Decoupled downside |
| SPKSpark New ZealandOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 134.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 69.5%, range 57.9%-85.1%. | stable | down-27.7% | Fund. stable, price -27.7% | Decoupled downside |
| PCTPrecinct Properties | stable | down-9.8% | Fund. stable, price -9.8% | Decoupled downside |
| SUMSummerset Group HoldingsDebtor days: 9.1 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 7.5 days, range 6.9 days-8.3 days. | stable | down-30.7% | Fund. stable, price -30.7% | Decoupled downside |
| BGPBriscoe Group | stable | down-20.6% | Fund. stable, price -20.6% | Decoupled downside |
| SKCSkyCity Entertainment Group | stable | down-39.1% | Fund. stable, price -39.1% | Decoupled downside |
| WINWinton Land | stable | down-38.8% | Fund. stable, price -38.8% | Decoupled downside |
| SKOSerko | stable | down-55.1% | Fund. stable, price -55.1% | Decoupled downside |
| KMDKMD Brands | stable | down-56.5% | Fund. stable, price -56.5% | Decoupled downside |
| STUSteel & Tube Holdings | stable | down-52.1% | Fund. stable, price -52.1% | Decoupled downside |
| APLAsset Plus | stable | down-17.5% | Fund. stable, price -17.5% | Decoupled downside |
| AOFAoFrioDebtor days: 124.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 84.0 days, range 76.2 days-93.8 days. | stable | down-20.4% | Fund. stable, price -20.4% | Decoupled downside |
| MPGMetro Performance Glass | stable | down-33.3% | Fund. stable, price -33.3% | Decoupled downside |
| GENGeneral CapitalDebtor days: 3.2 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 0.1 days, range 0.0 days-0.2 days. | stable | down-13.3% | Fund. stable, price -13.3% | Decoupled downside |
| MOVMOVE Logistics Group | stable | down-16.2% | Fund. stable, price -16.2% | Decoupled downside |
| BLTBLIS TechnologiesInventory days: 39.6 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.3 days, range 21.0 days-26.2 days. | stable | down-15.8% | Fund. stable, price -15.8% | Decoupled downside |
| TRUTruscreen Group | stable | down-11.1% | Fund. stable, price -11.1% | Decoupled downside |
| CCCCooks Coffee CompanyDebtor days: 67.5 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 93.3 days, range 72.4 days-134.3 days. | stable | down-37.4% | Fund. stable, price -37.4% | Decoupled downside |
| NTLNew Talisman Gold Mines | stable | down-81.0% | Fund. stable, price -81.0% | Decoupled downside |
| ENSEnprise Group | stable | down-34.2% | Fund. stable, price -34.2% | Decoupled downside |
| AIAAuckland International Airport | stable | up+12.2% | Fund. stable, price +12.2% | Decoupled upside |
| MCYMercury NZ | stable | up+9.5% | Fund. stable, price +9.5% | Decoupled upside |
| FBUFletcher BuildingOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 47.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -8.9%, range -37.6%-31.2%. | stable | up+22.2% | Fund. stable, price +22.2% | Decoupled upside |
| GNEGenesis EnergyInventory days: 37.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.9 days, range 18.3 days-37.2 days. | stable | up+9.3% | Fund. stable, price +9.3% | Decoupled upside |
| CHIChannel Infrastructure NZOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 79.6%, above normal range; 4-period mean 33.3%, range -24.6%-68.2%. | stable | up+53.5% | Fund. stable, price +53.5% | Decoupled upside |
| SCLScales CorporationDebtor days: 25.8 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 19.6 days, range 16.5 days-23.7 days. | stable | up+37.9% | Fund. stable, price +37.9% | Decoupled upside |
| NPHNapier Port Holdings | stable | up+15.1% | Fund. stable, price +15.1% | Decoupled upside |
| TRATurners Automotive GroupInventory days: 21.8 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 31.1 days, range 22.0 days-37.2 days. | stable | up+20.7% | Fund. stable, price +20.7% | Decoupled upside |
| SANSanford | stable | up+20.7% | Fund. stable, price +20.7% | Decoupled upside |
| RAKRakonRevenue growth: 30.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean -19.9%, range -32.0%-2.0%. | stable | up+176.8% | Fund. stable, price +176.8% | Decoupled upside |
| MCKMillennium & Copthorne Hotels New ZealandDebtor days: 20.0 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 17.1 days, range 15.4 days-19.9 days. | stable | up+15.1% | Fund. stable, price +15.1% | Decoupled upside |
| IKEikeGPS GroupInventory days: 182.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 49.9 days, range 29.3 days-89.9 days. | stable | up+17.0% | Fund. stable, price +17.0% | Decoupled upside |
| SCTScott TechnologyDebtor days: 64.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 51.7 days, range 46.4 days-60.2 days. | stable | up+27.0% | Fund. stable, price +27.0% | Decoupled upside |
| LICLivestock Improvement Corporation | stable | up+26.3% | Fund. stable, price +26.3% | Decoupled upside |
| NZKNew Zealand King Salmon InvestmentsDebtor days: 29.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 26.1 days, range 23.4 days-28.1 days. | stable | up+6.8% | Fund. stable, price +6.8% | Decoupled upside |
| AIRAir New Zealand | deteriorating | down-25.0% | Fund. deteriorating, price -25.0% | Aligned unfavourable |
| GTKGentrack Group Limited 6 months to 31 March 2026 | deteriorating | down-66.9% | Fund. deteriorating, price -66.9% | Aligned unfavourable |
| SMLSynlait MilkEBITDA margin: -4.5%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 6.5%, range 3.0%-8.7%. | deteriorating | down-40.6% | Fund. deteriorating, price -40.6% | Aligned unfavourable |
| WHSThe Warehouse Group | deteriorating | down-27.7% | Fund. deteriorating, price -27.7% | Aligned unfavourable |
| ERDEROADEBITDA margin: 20.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 28.6%, range 25.8%-30.7%. | deteriorating | down-24.4% | Fund. deteriorating, price -24.4% | Aligned unfavourable |
| CDICDL Investments New Zealand | deteriorating | down-20.0% | Fund. deteriorating, price -20.0% | Aligned unfavourable |
| SVRSavorEBITDA margin: 14.5%, above normal range; 5-period mean 11.5%, range 9.8%-14.2%. | deteriorating | down-13.9% | Fund. deteriorating, price -13.9% | Aligned unfavourable |
| MEEMe TodayEBITDA margin: -32.4%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -76.6%, range -97.7%--47.9%. | deteriorating | down-45.6% | Fund. deteriorating, price -45.6% | Aligned unfavourable |
| AFCAFC Group Holdings | deteriorating | flat0.0% | Fund. deteriorating, price 0.0% | Aligned unfavourable |
| IFTInfratil | deteriorating | up+35.1% | Fund. deteriorating, price +35.1% | Warning signal |
| CNUChorusEBITDA margin: 70.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 69.5%, range 69.0%-70.2%. | deteriorating | up+14.0% | Fund. deteriorating, price +14.0% | Warning signal |
| TWRTower | deteriorating | up+12.0% | Fund. deteriorating, price +12.0% | Warning signal |
| OCAOceania HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 190.3%, above normal range; 3-period mean 130.3%, range 81.2%-182.0%. | deteriorating | up+6.3% | Fund. deteriorating, price +6.3% | Warning signal |
| PEBPacific Edge | deteriorating | up+147.6% | Fund. deteriorating, price +147.6% | Warning signal |
| BRWBremworthDebtor days: 90.2 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 56.2 days, range 46.7 days-81.9 days. | deteriorating | up+16.7% | Fund. deteriorating, price +16.7% | Warning signal |
| FCGFonterra Co-operative Group | insufficient data | up+34.8% | Fund. insufficient data, price +34.8% | Insufficient data |
| VCTVector | insufficient data | up+13.0% | Fund. insufficient data, price +13.0% | Insufficient data |
| RTOBlackwell Global Holdings | insufficient data | flat+2.3% | Fund. insufficient data, price +2.3% | Insufficient data |
| GMTGoodman Property Trust | stable | insufficient data | Fund. stable, price Not available | Insufficient data |
Fundamentals combine revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the latest comparable period. Revenue uses a 2% band; NPAT and cash flow use a 5% band. At least two inputs must resolve or the row is marked insufficient.
Price direction uses 12-month share-price movement with the same5% up/down band. Category is the explicit combination of fundamental direction and price direction, so flat fundamentals with a moved price no longer collapse into a generic stable bucket.
Decoupled upside and downside rows are the pure Mr. Market cases: fundamentals are stable while the price moved outside the flat band. Moves beyond 20% are the cleanest examples and are surfaced by the price-is-noise page.
Fundamental direction combines revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the most recent reported period vs the prior comparable period. Share price direction is the 12-month percentage change, classified using a 5% band. This page shows divergence between the two — not a recommendation. See the full principles methodology for thresholds and edge cases.
Listed investment vehicles are excluded from these principle rankings because operating cash flow and earnings-yield metrics work differently for these structures: AFI, BAI, BRM, HFL, KFL, MLN, TEM.
Cash-flow direction uses FCF where available and operating cash flow where FCF is not disclosed. CVT and GNZ currently have incomplete 12-month market-data fields, so their price-direction fields remain insufficient until those inputs resolve.