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Process vs outcome

The quality of a decision and the quality of its outcome are two different things. Good decisions can produce bad outcomes, and bad decisions can produce good outcomes — so judging investments by price movement alone confuses luck with skill.

Framing articulated by Annie Duke in Thinking in Bets, applied to investing by Charlie Munger.

Each company's latest fundamental direction is compared with its 12-month share-price direction. The magnitude column keeps the price move visible beside the business trajectory.

Rankings as of 21-10-2026 12:00am NZT, based on Annolyse's coverage of 100 NZX companies.

11

Opportunity signal

14

Aligned favourable

11

Stable

15

Decoupled upside

27

Decoupled downside

10

Aligned unfavourable

3

Warning signal

1

Insufficient data

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Showing 92 of 92 companies.

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Process vs outcome company ranking
GNZGoodman Property Trustimprovingdown-11.7%Fund. improving, price -11.7%Opportunity signal
FRWFreightways Groupimprovingdown-6.6%Fund. improving, price -6.6%Opportunity signal
RYMRyman Healthcareimprovingdown-34.1%Fund. improving, price -34.1%Opportunity signal
SUMSummerset Group HoldingsDebtor days: 105.6 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 54.7 days, range 50.8 days-57.6 days.improvingdown-41.0%Fund. improving, price -41.0%Opportunity signal
WINWinton Landimprovingdown-46.0%Fund. improving, price -46.0%Opportunity signal
CMOThe Colonial Motor CompanyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-94.5m, below normal range; 2/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$56.6m, and 1 had releases averaging NZ$-7.9m.improvingdown-7.1%Fund. improving, price -7.1%Opportunity signal
SPNSouth Port New ZealandRevenue growth: 13.5%, above normal range; 5-period mean 7.3%, range 2.7%-12.7%.improvingdown-6.3%Fund. improving, price -6.3%Opportunity signal
PGWPGG Wrightsonimprovingdown-9.2%Fund. improving, price -9.2%Opportunity signal
NZLNew Zealand Rural Land Companyimprovingdown-14.0%Fund. improving, price -14.0%Opportunity signal
ARBArborGen HoldingsEBITDA margin: 16.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 19.1%, range 17.7%-21.2%.improvingdown-54.2%Fund. improving, price -54.2%Opportunity signal
MOVMOVE Logistics GroupEBITDA margin: 16.4%, above normal range; 3-period mean 10.4%, range 2.7%-14.7%.improvingdown-5.0%Fund. improving, price -5.0%Opportunity signal
FPHFisher & Paykel Healthcareimprovingup+36.7%Fund. improving, price +36.7%Aligned favourable
SKLSkellerup HoldingsDebtor days: 59.3 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 55.4 days, range 53.9 days-56.6 days.improvingup+46.0%Fund. improving, price +46.0%Aligned favourable
HGHHeartland Group HoldingsRevenue growth: 11.1%, above normal range; 4-period mean 6.8%, range -2.0%-10.2%.improvingup+14.9%Fund. improving, price +14.9%Aligned favourable
HLGHallenstein GlassonInventory days: 19.7 days, below normal range; 5-period mean 27.7 days, range 23.0 days-34.8 days.improvingup+60.0%Fund. improving, price +60.0%Aligned favourable
SKTSky Network TelevisionRevenue growth: 7.7%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 1.9%, range -2.0%-4.1%.improvingup+5.3%Fund. improving, price +5.3%Aligned favourable
MCKMillennium & Copthorne Hotels New ZealandInventory days: 1.9 days, below normal range; 5-period mean 3.3 days, range 2.2 days-4.2 days.improvingup+10.7%Fund. improving, price +10.7%Aligned favourable
GXHGreen Cross Healthimprovingup+114.1%Fund. improving, price +114.1%Aligned favourable
TGGT&G Global Limited and subsidiary companiesRevenue growth: 14.5%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -0.8%, range -4.4%-2.3%.improvingflat-2.6%Fund. improving, price -2.6%Aligned favourable
NZMNZMEimprovingflat-2.4%Fund. improving, price -2.4%Aligned favourable
CVTComvitaimprovingup+7.9%Fund. improving, price +7.9%Aligned favourable
MFBMy Food Bag GroupDebtor days: 3.0 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 0.8 days, range 0.4 days-1.2 days.improvingup+33.3%Fund. improving, price +33.3%Aligned favourable
TAHThird Age Health Servicesimprovingflat+4.3%Fund. improving, price +4.3%Aligned favourable
PHLPromisia HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 96.2%, below normal range; 3-period mean 167.2%, range 107.1%-197.5%.improvingup+48.9%Fund. improving, price +48.9%Aligned favourable
BFGBurger Fuel GroupDebtor days: 28.3 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 30.3 days, range 28.9 days-32.4 days.improvingup+6.3%Fund. improving, price +6.3%Aligned favourable
AIAAuckland International Airportstableflat+0.1%Fund. stable, price +0.1%Stable
MCYMercury NZEBITDA margin: 33.1%, unprecedented high; 5-period mean 25.6%, range 22.5%-30.8%.stableflat+0.8%Fund. stable, price +0.8%Stable
FBUFletcher BuildingInventory days: 111.4 days, unprecedented high; 5-period mean 81.6 days, range 64.7 days-99.5 days.stableflat+2.6%Fund. stable, price +2.6%Stable
GNEGenesis EnergyDebtor days: 19.4 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 16.2 days, range 12.6 days-18.6 days.stableflat-3.6%Fund. stable, price -3.6%Stable
TRATurners Automotive Groupstableflat-2.4%Fund. stable, price -2.4%Stable
VGLVista Group InternationalEBITDA margin: 14.4%, above normal range; 4-period mean 10.3%, range 3.6%-14.3%.stableflat+3.0%Fund. stable, price +3.0%Stable
SANSanfordstableflat+2.6%Fund. stable, price +2.6%Stable
DGLDelegat Groupstableflat-1.2%Fund. stable, price -1.2%Stable
SCTScott TechnologyDebtor days: 64.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 51.7 days, range 46.4 days-60.2 days.stableflat-1.1%Fund. stable, price -1.1%Stable
MHJMichael Hill Internationalstableflat0.0%Fund. stable, price 0.0%Stable
IPRIperionstableflat0.0%Fund. stable, price 0.0%Stable
MELMeridian EnergyEBITDA margin: 27.1%, above normal range; 3-period mean 18.5%, range 12.6%-24.3%.stabledown-5.2%Fund. stable, price -5.2%Decoupled downside
CENContact EnergyEBITDA margin: 31.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.5%, range 21.7%-25.4%.stabledown-6.3%Fund. stable, price -6.3%Decoupled downside
ATMThe a2 Milk Companystabledown-19.0%Fund. stable, price -19.0%Decoupled downside
VCTVectorRevenue growth: 8.3%, unprecedented high; 5-period mean -4.6%, range -11.2%-4.7%.stabledown-7.8%Fund. stable, price -7.8%Decoupled downside
EBOEBOS Groupstabledown-30.4%Fund. stable, price -30.4%Decoupled downside
SPKSpark New ZealandOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 80.6%, above normal range; 5-period mean 65.2%, range 46.5%-76.3%.stabledown-21.5%Fund. stable, price -21.5%Decoupled downside
CNUChorusstabledown-13.4%Fund. stable, price -13.4%Decoupled downside
PCTPrecinct Propertiesstabledown-24.8%Fund. stable, price -24.8%Decoupled downside
KPGKiwi Property GroupDebtor days: 11.1 days, below normal range; 4-period mean 14.1 days, range 12.1 days-17.5 days.stabledown-14.7%Fund. stable, price -14.7%Decoupled downside
AIRAir New ZealandDebtor days: 22.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 0.5 days, range 0.3 days-0.9 days.stabledown-35.3%Fund. stable, price -35.3%Decoupled downside
PFIProperty for Industrystabledown-11.0%Fund. stable, price -11.0%Decoupled downside
VSLVulcan Steelstabledown-18.3%Fund. stable, price -18.3%Decoupled downside
ARGArgosy Propertystabledown-19.6%Fund. stable, price -19.6%Decoupled downside
SKCSkyCity Entertainment GroupDebtor days: 4.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 3.0 days, range 2.0 days-3.5 days.stabledown-10.7%Fund. stable, price -10.7%Decoupled downside
CDICDL Investments New Zealandstabledown-21.8%Fund. stable, price -21.8%Decoupled downside
KMDKMD Brandsstabledown-57.4%Fund. stable, price -57.4%Decoupled downside
SKOSerkostabledown-61.7%Fund. stable, price -61.7%Decoupled downside
APLAsset Plusstabledown-25.0%Fund. stable, price -25.0%Decoupled downside
STUSteel & Tube HoldingsEBITDA margin: -10.4%, below normal range; 3-period mean 4.9%, range -0.6%-8.8%.stabledown-58.6%Fund. stable, price -58.6%Decoupled downside
AOFAoFriostabledown-43.3%Fund. stable, price -43.3%Decoupled downside
MPGMetro Performance Glassstabledown-54.9%Fund. stable, price -54.9%Decoupled downside
TRUTruscreen Groupstabledown-47.4%Fund. stable, price -47.4%Decoupled downside
RUARua Biosciencestabledown-16.7%Fund. stable, price -16.7%Decoupled downside
ENSEnprise Groupstabledown-26.8%Fund. stable, price -26.8%Decoupled downside
CCCCooks Coffee CompanyDebtor days: 67.5 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 93.3 days, range 72.4 days-134.3 days.stabledown-53.5%Fund. stable, price -53.5%Decoupled downside
NTLNew Talisman Gold Minesstabledown-87.7%Fund. stable, price -87.7%Decoupled downside
RTOBlackwell Global Holdingsstabledown-9.9%Fund. stable, price -9.9%Decoupled downside
FCGFonterra Co-operative Groupstableup+41.1%Fund. stable, price +41.1%Decoupled upside
MFTMainfreightstableup+8.1%Fund. stable, price +8.1%Decoupled upside
POTPort of Taurangastableup+5.9%Fund. stable, price +5.9%Decoupled upside
CHIChannel Infrastructure NZOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 79.6%, above normal range; 4-period mean 33.3%, range -24.6%-68.2%.stableup+32.8%Fund. stable, price +32.8%Decoupled upside
SCLScales CorporationRevenue growth: 104.9%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 10.4%, range 0.0%-21.9%.stableup+8.1%Fund. stable, price +8.1%Decoupled upside
NPHNapier Port Holdingsstableup+8.7%Fund. stable, price +8.7%Decoupled upside
THLTourism Holdingsstableup+7.8%Fund. stable, price +7.8%Decoupled upside
RAKRakonRevenue growth: 30.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean -19.9%, range -32.0%-2.0%.stableup+176.8%Fund. stable, price +176.8%Decoupled upside
SEKSeekastableup+9.3%Fund. stable, price +9.3%Decoupled upside
IKEikeGPS GroupDebtor days: 58.1 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 84.6 days, range 59.0 days-102.9 days.stableup+8.4%Fund. stable, price +8.4%Decoupled upside
LICLivestock Improvement Corporationstableup+15.5%Fund. stable, price +15.5%Decoupled upside
NZKNew Zealand King Salmon Investmentsstableup+17.1%Fund. stable, price +17.1%Decoupled upside
RADRadius Residential CareDebtor days: 21.2 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 27.4 days, range 24.0 days-32.6 days.stableup+12.5%Fund. stable, price +12.5%Decoupled upside
BLTBLIS TechnologiesInventory days: 39.6 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.3 days, range 21.0 days-26.2 days.stableup+62.5%Fund. stable, price +62.5%Decoupled upside
GENGeneral Capitalstableup+13.5%Fund. stable, price +13.5%Decoupled upside
IFTInfratildeterioratingflat-1.2%Fund. deteriorating, price -1.2%Aligned unfavourable
BGPBriscoe GroupInventory days: 51.0 days, below normal range; 4-period mean 52.8 days, range 51.3 days-55.9 days.deterioratingdown-15.5%Fund. deteriorating, price -15.5%Aligned unfavourable
OCAOceania HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 190.3%, above normal range; 3-period mean 130.3%, range 81.2%-182.0%.deterioratingdown-12.6%Fund. deteriorating, price -12.6%Aligned unfavourable
GTKGentrack Group Limited 6 months to 31 March 2026deterioratingdown-56.8%Fund. deteriorating, price -56.8%Aligned unfavourable
SMLSynlait MilkEBITDA margin: -4.5%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 6.5%, range 3.0%-8.7%.deterioratingdown-39.3%Fund. deteriorating, price -39.3%Aligned unfavourable
WHSThe Warehouse Groupdeterioratingdown-18.1%Fund. deteriorating, price -18.1%Aligned unfavourable
ERDEROADEBITDA margin: 20.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 28.6%, range 25.8%-30.7%.deterioratingdown-45.3%Fund. deteriorating, price -45.3%Aligned unfavourable
BRWBremworthDebtor days: 90.2 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 56.2 days, range 46.7 days-81.9 days.deterioratingdown-26.0%Fund. deteriorating, price -26.0%Aligned unfavourable
SVRSavorEBITDA margin: 14.5%, above normal range; 5-period mean 11.5%, range 9.8%-14.2%.deterioratingdown-9.5%Fund. deteriorating, price -9.5%Aligned unfavourable
AFCAFC Group HoldingsRevenue growth: -78.3%, below normal range; 5-period mean 11.0%, range -47.6%-159.0%.deterioratingflat0.0%Fund. deteriorating, price 0.0%Aligned unfavourable
TWRTowerdeterioratingup+13.4%Fund. deteriorating, price +13.4%Warning signal
PEBPacific Edgedeterioratingup+23.0%Fund. deteriorating, price +23.0%Warning signal
MEEMe TodayEBITDA margin: -32.4%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -76.6%, range -97.7%--47.9%.deterioratingup+15.1%Fund. deteriorating, price +15.1%Warning signal
GMTGoodman Property Truststableinsufficient dataFund. stable, price Not availableInsufficient data
How this is calculated

Fundamentals combine revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the latest comparable period. Revenue uses a 2% band; NPAT and cash flow use a 5% band. At least two inputs must resolve or the row is marked insufficient.

Price direction uses 12-month share-price movement with the same5% up/down band. Category is the explicit combination of fundamental direction and price direction, so flat fundamentals with a moved price no longer collapse into a generic stable bucket.

Decoupled upside and downside rows are the pure Mr. Market cases: fundamentals are stable while the price moved outside the flat band. Moves beyond 20% are the cleanest examples and are shown on the price-is-noise page.

Fundamental direction combines revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the most recent reported period vs the prior comparable period. Share price direction is the 12-month percentage change, classified using a 5% band. The difference between the two is analytical context, not a recommendation. See the full principles methodology for thresholds and edge cases.

Listed investment vehicles are excluded from these principle rankings because operating cash flow and earnings-yield metrics work differently for these structures: AFI, BAI, BRM, HFL, KFL, MLN, TEM.

Cash-flow direction uses FCF where available and operating cash flow where FCF is not disclosed. CVT and GNZ currently have incomplete 12-month market-data fields, so their price-direction fields remain insufficient until those inputs resolve.