Process vs outcome

Name: Annolyse process vs outcome company ranking
Creator: Annolyse

The quality of a decision and the quality of its outcome are two different things. Good decisions can produce bad outcomes, and bad decisions can produce good outcomes — so judging investments by price movement alone confuses luck with skill.

Framing articulated by Annie Duke in Thinking in Bets, applied to investing by Charlie Munger.

Below, each covered company is shown by fundamental direction versus share price direction over the same window. The category makes the directional relationship explicit; the magnitude column keeps the price move visible beside the business trajectory.

Rankings as of 07-06-2026 8:47pm NZT, based on Annolyse's coverage of 103 NZX companies.

Opportunity signal

Aligned favourable

Stable

Decoupled upside

Decoupled downside

Aligned unfavourable

Warning signal

Insufficient data

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Process vs outcome company ranking

VGLVista Group International	improving	down-37.5%	Fund. improving, price -37.5%	Opportunity signal
MHJMichael Hill InternationalDebtor days: 0.0 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 8.0 days, range 7.2 days-9.6 days.	improving	down-9.3%	Fund. improving, price -9.3%	Opportunity signal
ARBArborGen HoldingsEBITDA margin: 16.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 19.1%, range 17.7%-21.2%.	improving	down-41.5%	Fund. improving, price -41.5%	Opportunity signal
FPHFisher & Paykel Healthcare	improving	flat+0.3%	Fund. improving, price +0.3%	Aligned favourable
GNZGoodman Property Trust	improving	up+5.1%	Fund. improving, price +5.1%	Aligned favourable
FRWFreightways Group	improving	up+25.4%	Fund. improving, price +25.4%	Aligned favourable
RYMRyman Healthcare	improving	flat+3.2%	Fund. improving, price +3.2%	Aligned favourable
SKLSkellerup Holdings	improving	up+28.6%	Fund. improving, price +28.6%	Aligned favourable
HLGHallenstein GlassonDebtor days: 0.8 days, above normal range; 4-period mean 0.5 days, range 0.2 days-0.8 days.	improving	up+24.7%	Fund. improving, price +24.7%	Aligned favourable
THLTourism Holdings	improving	up+83.0%	Fund. improving, price +83.0%	Aligned favourable
SKTSky Network TelevisionPBT growth: 2472.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -33.4%, range -106.0%-8.9%.	improving	up+12.3%	Fund. improving, price +12.3%	Aligned favourable
DGLDelegat Group	improving	flat-2.4%	Fund. improving, price -2.4%	Aligned favourable
GXHGreen Cross Health	improving	up+164.1%	Fund. improving, price +164.1%	Aligned favourable
TGGT&G Global Limited and subsidiary companiesRevenue growth: 14.5%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -0.8%, range -4.4%-2.3%.	improving	up+35.6%	Fund. improving, price +35.6%	Aligned favourable
SPNSouth Port New ZealandRevenue growth: 17.5%, above normal range; 4-period mean 6.2%, range -0.2%-16.1%.	improving	up+45.8%	Fund. improving, price +45.8%	Aligned favourable
CMOThe Colonial Motor CompanyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-29.6m, below normal range; 3/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$46.7m, and 1 had releases averaging NZ$-18.8m.	improving	flat-1.0%	Fund. improving, price -1.0%	Aligned favourable
SEKSeekaEBITDA margin: 21.8%, above normal range; 3-period mean 13.5%, range 8.6%-18.5%.	improving	up+25.2%	Fund. improving, price +25.2%	Aligned favourable
NZMNZME	improving	flat0.0%	Fund. improving, price 0.0%	Aligned favourable
CVTComvita	improving	up+23.7%	Fund. improving, price +23.7%	Aligned favourable
MFBMy Food Bag GroupDebtor days: 3.0 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 0.8 days, range 0.4 days-1.2 days.	improving	up+33.3%	Fund. improving, price +33.3%	Aligned favourable
TAHThird Age Health Services	improving	up+36.0%	Fund. improving, price +36.0%	Aligned favourable
PHLPromisia HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 96.2%, below normal range; 3-period mean 167.2%, range 107.1%-197.5%.	improving	up+83.8%	Fund. improving, price +83.8%	Aligned favourable
BFGBurger Fuel GroupDebtor days: 28.3 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 30.3 days, range 28.9 days-32.4 days.	improving	up+6.6%	Fund. improving, price +6.6%	Aligned favourable
RUARua BioscienceRevenue growth: 92.2%, above normal range; 3-period mean -31.8%, range -100.0%-33.8%.	improving	up+7.1%	Fund. improving, price +7.1%	Aligned favourable
MELMeridian EnergyOperating working-capital movement: NZ$0.0m, above normal range; 0/3 prior periods had builds, and 3 had releases averaging NZ$-102.6m.	stable	flat+3.1%	Fund. stable, price +3.1%	Stable
CENContact EnergyEBITDA margin: 30.9%, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.2%, range 23.7%-27.1%.	stable	flat+3.6%	Fund. stable, price +3.6%	Stable
FBUFletcher BuildingOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 47.1%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -8.9%, range -37.6%-31.2%.	stable	flat-1.9%	Fund. stable, price -1.9%	Stable
KPGKiwi Property GroupDebtor days: 11.1 days, below normal range; 4-period mean 14.1 days, range 12.1 days-17.5 days.	stable	flat+2.2%	Fund. stable, price +2.2%	Stable
ARGArgosy Property	stable	flat-1.9%	Fund. stable, price -1.9%	Stable
PGWPGG Wrightson	stable	flat+1.4%	Fund. stable, price +1.4%	Stable
GENGeneral CapitalDebtor days: 3.2 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 0.1 days, range 0.0 days-0.2 days.	stable	flat+1.9%	Fund. stable, price +1.9%	Stable
IPRIperionPBT growth: 35.3%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 88.9%, range 45.3%-99.9%.	stable	flat0.0%	Fund. stable, price 0.0%	Stable
MFTMainfreight	stable	down-9.4%	Fund. stable, price -9.4%	Decoupled downside
ATMThe a2 Milk Company	stable	down-27.8%	Fund. stable, price -27.8%	Decoupled downside
EBOEBOS Group	stable	down-47.0%	Fund. stable, price -47.0%	Decoupled downside
SPKSpark New ZealandOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 134.6%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 61.0%, range 35.4%-85.1%.	stable	down-16.7%	Fund. stable, price -16.7%	Decoupled downside
SUMSummerset Group HoldingsDebtor days: 9.1 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 7.5 days, range 6.9 days-8.3 days.	stable	down-27.6%	Fund. stable, price -27.6%	Decoupled downside
BGPBriscoe GroupOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-14.0m, below normal range; 2/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$14.9m, and 2 had releases averaging NZ$-6.7m.	stable	down-5.8%	Fund. stable, price -5.8%	Decoupled downside
SKCSkyCity Entertainment Group	stable	down-47.4%	Fund. stable, price -47.4%	Decoupled downside
WINWinton Land	stable	down-24.8%	Fund. stable, price -24.8%	Decoupled downside
SKOSerkoOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-0.4m, below normal range; 2/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$7.4m, and none had a working-capital release.	stable	down-46.3%	Fund. stable, price -46.3%	Decoupled downside
KMDKMD Brands	stable	down-74.5%	Fund. stable, price -74.5%	Decoupled downside
STUSteel & Tube Holdings	stable	down-45.6%	Fund. stable, price -45.6%	Decoupled downside
APLAsset Plus	stable	down-9.7%	Fund. stable, price -9.7%	Decoupled downside
AOFAoFrioDebtor days: 124.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 84.0 days, range 76.2 days-93.8 days.	stable	down-24.2%	Fund. stable, price -24.2%	Decoupled downside
MPGMetro Performance GlassPBT growth: 95.2%, above normal range; 4-period mean -681.2%, range -2443.5%-0.0%.	stable	down-36.1%	Fund. stable, price -36.1%	Decoupled downside
BLTBLIS TechnologiesInventory days: 39.6 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 23.3 days, range 21.0 days-26.2 days.	stable	down-5.9%	Fund. stable, price -5.9%	Decoupled downside
TRUTruscreen Group	stable	down-20.8%	Fund. stable, price -20.8%	Decoupled downside
CCCCooks Coffee CompanyDebtor days: 67.5 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 93.3 days, range 72.4 days-134.3 days.	stable	down-16.0%	Fund. stable, price -16.0%	Decoupled downside
ENSEnprise Group	stable	down-41.3%	Fund. stable, price -41.3%	Decoupled downside
RTOBlackwell Global HoldingsPBT growth: -136.8%, below normal range; 3-period mean 124.9%, range 53.1%-221.6%.	stable	down-17.3%	Fund. stable, price -17.3%	Decoupled downside
AIAAuckland International Airport	stable	up+7.4%	Fund. stable, price +7.4%	Decoupled upside
MCYMercury NZ	stable	up+19.3%	Fund. stable, price +19.3%	Decoupled upside
FCGFonterra Co-operative Group	stable	up+38.5%	Fund. stable, price +38.5%	Decoupled upside
GNEGenesis EnergyInventory days: 37.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 25.9 days, range 18.3 days-37.2 days.	stable	up+16.8%	Fund. stable, price +16.8%	Decoupled upside
CHIChannel Infrastructure NZOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 79.6%, above normal range; 4-period mean 33.3%, range -24.6%-68.2%.	stable	up+49.8%	Fund. stable, price +49.8%	Decoupled upside
PFIProperty for Industry	stable	up+11.6%	Fund. stable, price +11.6%	Decoupled upside
HGHHeartland Group HoldingsPBT growth: 1184.9%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -24.6%, range -89.9%-8.9%.	stable	up+59.7%	Fund. stable, price +59.7%	Decoupled upside
SCLScales CorporationDebtor days: 25.8 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 19.6 days, range 16.5 days-23.7 days.	stable	up+33.3%	Fund. stable, price +33.3%	Decoupled upside
TRATurners Automotive GroupInventory days: 21.8 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 31.1 days, range 22.0 days-37.2 days.	stable	up+26.9%	Fund. stable, price +26.9%	Decoupled upside
NPHNapier Port Holdings	stable	up+15.9%	Fund. stable, price +15.9%	Decoupled upside
SANSanford	stable	up+33.3%	Fund. stable, price +33.3%	Decoupled upside
MCKMillennium & Copthorne Hotels New ZealandDebtor days: 20.0 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 17.1 days, range 15.4 days-19.9 days.	stable	up+14.8%	Fund. stable, price +14.8%	Decoupled upside
RAKRakonPBT growth: 73.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean -3218.6%, range -9571.7%-14.9%.	stable	up+176.8%	Fund. stable, price +176.8%	Decoupled upside
IKEikeGPS GroupInventory days: 182.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 49.9 days, range 29.3 days-89.9 days.	stable	up+32.3%	Fund. stable, price +32.3%	Decoupled upside
SCTScott TechnologyDebtor days: 64.4 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 51.7 days, range 46.4 days-60.2 days.	stable	up+41.7%	Fund. stable, price +41.7%	Decoupled upside
LICLivestock Improvement Corporation	stable	up+27.4%	Fund. stable, price +27.4%	Decoupled upside
NZKNew Zealand King Salmon InvestmentsDebtor days: 29.7 days, above normal range; 3-period mean 26.1 days, range 23.4 days-28.1 days.	stable	up+14.0%	Fund. stable, price +14.0%	Decoupled upside
RADRadius Residential CareDebtor days: 21.2 days, below normal range; 3-period mean 27.4 days, range 24.0 days-32.6 days.	stable	up+37.5%	Fund. stable, price +37.5%	Decoupled upside
MOVMOVE Logistics Group	stable	up+8.2%	Fund. stable, price +8.2%	Decoupled upside
PCTPrecinct Properties	deteriorating	down-14.3%	Fund. deteriorating, price -14.3%	Aligned unfavourable
AIRAir New ZealandOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-524.0m, below normal range; 3/3 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$102.0m, and none had a working-capital release.	deteriorating	down-28.0%	Fund. deteriorating, price -28.0%	Aligned unfavourable
GTKGentrack Group Limited 6 months to 31 March 2026	deteriorating	down-68.2%	Fund. deteriorating, price -68.2%	Aligned unfavourable
SMLSynlait MilkEBITDA margin: -4.5%, unprecedented low; 5-period mean 6.5%, range 3.0%-8.7%.	deteriorating	down-40.7%	Fund. deteriorating, price -40.7%	Aligned unfavourable
WHSThe Warehouse Group	deteriorating	down-36.5%	Fund. deteriorating, price -36.5%	Aligned unfavourable
CDICDL Investments New ZealandOperating working-capital movement: NZ$-0.3m, unprecedented low; 3/4 prior periods had builds averaging NZ$0.2m, and none had a working-capital release.	deteriorating	down-10.1%	Fund. deteriorating, price -10.1%	Aligned unfavourable
ERDEROADEBITDA margin: 20.0%, below normal range; 3-period mean 28.6%, range 25.8%-30.7%.	deteriorating	down-29.6%	Fund. deteriorating, price -29.6%	Aligned unfavourable
SVRSavorPBT growth: 222.9%, unprecedented high; 5-period mean 16.3%, range -63.0%-93.8%.	deteriorating	down-10.5%	Fund. deteriorating, price -10.5%	Aligned unfavourable
NTLNew Talisman Gold MinesRevenue growth: 0.0%, above normal range; 3-period mean -55.1%, range -100.0%--24.9%.	deteriorating	down-82.9%	Fund. deteriorating, price -82.9%	Aligned unfavourable
MEEMe TodayEBITDA margin: -32.4%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean -76.6%, range -97.7%--47.9%.	deteriorating	down-15.5%	Fund. deteriorating, price -15.5%	Aligned unfavourable
AFCAFC Group HoldingsPBT growth: -442.6%, unprecedented low; 4-period mean 61.9%, range 20.2%-130.3%.	deteriorating	flat0.0%	Fund. deteriorating, price 0.0%	Aligned unfavourable
IFTInfratilPBT growth: 354.8%, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 14.4%, range -110.1%-214.2%.	deteriorating	up+46.3%	Fund. deteriorating, price +46.3%	Warning signal
CNUChorusEBITDA margin: 70.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 69.5%, range 69.0%-70.2%.	deteriorating	up+12.6%	Fund. deteriorating, price +12.6%	Warning signal
TWRTower	deteriorating	up+27.2%	Fund. deteriorating, price +27.2%	Warning signal
OCAOceania HealthcareOCF / EBITDA cash conversion: 190.3%, above normal range; 3-period mean 130.3%, range 81.2%-182.0%.	deteriorating	up+25.8%	Fund. deteriorating, price +25.8%	Warning signal
PEBPacific Edge	deteriorating	up+203.0%	Fund. deteriorating, price +203.0%	Warning signal
BRWBremworthDebtor days: 90.2 days, unprecedented high; 4-period mean 56.2 days, range 46.7 days-81.9 days.	deteriorating	up+16.7%	Fund. deteriorating, price +16.7%	Warning signal
VCTVectorEBITDA margin: 56.6%, above normal range; 3-period mean 40.2%, range 36.2%-46.0%.	insufficient data	up+17.9%	Fund. insufficient data, price +17.9%	Insufficient data
ARVArvida Group	stable	insufficient data	Fund. stable, price n/a	Insufficient data

How this is calculated

Fundamentals combine revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the latest comparable period. Revenue uses a 2% band; NPAT and cash flow use a 5% band. At least two inputs must resolve or the row is marked insufficient.

Price direction uses 12-month share-price movement with the same5% up/down band. Category is the explicit combination of fundamental direction and price direction, so flat fundamentals with a moved price no longer collapse into a generic stable bucket.

Decoupled upside and downside rows are the pure Mr. Market cases: fundamentals are stable while the price moved outside the flat band. Moves beyond 20% are the cleanest examples and are surfaced by the price-is-noise page.

Fundamental direction combines revenue, NPAT, and cash-flow direction across the most recent reported period vs the prior comparable period. Share price direction is the 12-month percentage change, classified using a 5% band. This page shows divergence between the two — not a recommendation. See the full principles methodology for thresholds and edge cases.

Listed investment vehicles are excluded from these principle rankings because operating cash flow and earnings-yield metrics work differently for these structures: AFI, BAI, BRM, HFL, KFL, MLN, TEM.

Cash-flow direction uses FCF where available and operating cash flow where FCF is not disclosed. CVT and GNZ currently have incomplete 12-month market-data fields, so their price-direction fields remain insufficient until those inputs resolve.